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Thu 07/01 | 11:10 PM UTC | Cincinnati
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
San Diego Padres 49-33, +45 ML
SD +1.5
SD +115
Over 9.5
Cincinnati Reds 39-40, -269 ML
CIN -1.5
CIN -125
Under 9.5

Expert Picks

San Diego 4 @ Cincinnati 5 | 07/01 | 11:10 PM UTC

San Diego +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I'm a bit surprised the Padres are underdogs here. Pitcher Ryan Weathers (3-2, 2.47) had been quite good overall but was sent down because the Friars no longer had room in the rotation for him. They do now and he's back. Cincinnati goes with Luis Castillo. He's an ugly 3-10 with a 5.14 ERA but has been much better of late. Castillo allowed three runs over six in San Diego on June 20. I still think San Diego should be a slight favorite with a superior lineup, having won 11 of 12 and being 6-0 this year vs. Cincinnati. I'll happily take the Padres on the runline.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+4279 83-33-4 IN LAST 120 MLB PICKS
+464 5-1 IN LAST 6 CIN ATS PICKS
+200 3-1 IN LAST 4 SD ATS PICKS

Season Splits

49-33, +45 ML
39-40, -269 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
59%
49-33, +45
39-40, -269
49%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
51%
19-18, -241
19-20, -551
48%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
41%
7-10, -142
21-18, -334
53%
When Line was -105 to +125
MONEY LINE
When Line was -136 to -106
41%
5-7, -135
9-9, -170
50%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
45%
5-6, +28
16-13, -171
55%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
70%
14-6, +313
14-19, -244
42%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
70%
28-12, +329
7-15, -646
31%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
55%
34-27, -196
25-29, -538
46%
vs CIN
HEAD TO HEAD
vs SD
100%
6-0, +378
0-6, -600
0%
when Ryan Weathers starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Luis Castillo starts
62%
5-3, +151
4-12, -854
25%