There's value on the Indians behind Logan Allen, who is making the transition from the bullpen. Allen fanned 18 batters in 14 spring innings while posting a 0.64 ERA. The Indians have dominated the Royals in Cleveland and I'll lay the price.

Kansas City remains without one of its most exciting offensively players in injured shortstop in Adalberto Mondesi, who is on the injured list. Royals lefty starter Danny Duffy is just 4-12 with a 5.11 ERA in his career against the Indians. It's lefty Logan Allen for the Tribe. He was great this spring with a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings, and the Royals have never faced him in a regular-season game. This is Cleveland's home opener.

The Indians are undervalued again in another matchup with a left-handed pitcher. I have the Indians winning 56 percent of simulations against Danny Duffy and the Royals, suggesting this line should be closer to -127.