Zach Davies is 7-3 with a 2.69 ERA this season and he is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in September. Griffin Canning is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA this season but he has had a few good starts as of late. The Padres have won seven of their last 10 games but the Angels have won six of their last 10. However, the Angels are 8-16 on the road while the Padres are 21-9 at home.

My model says the Padres win in almost 80 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them here. San Diego already has clinched its first playoff berth since 2006 but still has an outside chance to finish first in the NL West. Zach Davies' first season with the Padres has been a strong one as he has gone 7-3 with a 2.69 ERA over 10 starts. He'll be looking to bounce back after having his five-start winning streak halted by the Los Angeles Dodgers last time out. Expect him to do just that.