6 Expert Picks
Lille to take on the punching bag of Ligue 1. ...
This is the perfect chance for Lille to turn things around. ...
The line for this match should be 2.5 goals in my opinion. ...
Lens have been almost perfect at home. ...
Lorient are once again being disrespected. ...
Auxerre might be the most boring side in France. ...
Is PSG the better team? Of course, but there is no question that Strasbourg, having recently undergone a managerial change (very unique circumstances involving Chelsea), is playing better of late, unbeaten in eight. Le Racing has scored 12 goals in the past three and has gotten at least a point in the past two in this series (drew in October). I would not play +0.5 as some of our books have but I feel pretty solid that this will at worst push.
I know that PSG are the big dogs of Ligue 1, and they're the understandable favorites in this matchup. I wouldn't even be shocked if PSG win this match and pickup three points. I don't think, however, if they win it'll be by multiple goals. PSG are on tired legs after two UCL matches in eight days, and six of their last seven matches have been decided by a single goal. Gary O'Neil has really turned Strasbourg around and has Joaquin Panichelli and Martial Godo looking terrifying on attack. I think Strasbourg get the draw here, but a full goal is too much.
These two teams gave us one of the best matches of the Ligue 1 season back in October. These teams met in Paris and proceeded to give us a thrilling 3-3 draw. While I'm not sure if we'll quite get six goals again, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw four or even five goals. PSG are meeting Strasbourg at a bad time. Strasbourg new manager Gary O' Neil has them in fantastic form since he came in. They took down Lille last matchday 4-1, and will be looking at a PSG team who is tired after a grueling 1-1 draw against Newcastle in UCL. I expect Strasbourg to give them hell, and for goals to be found once more.
I've been a big advocate of fading Nice for a while now. This club started off the season in fantastic form, but fell off a cliff near the end of October. This is a team that in 2 weeks back last year took points off Lyon, Lille and Rennes in three games, but now they're consistently dropping points to everyone. They did managed to beat Nantes last matchday, but that's not enough to convince me they are "back". Brest haven't been a great club either, but two teams out of form with a history of scrappy draws, has me taking the team on the spread.
Metz are dead last on the Ligue 1 table with only 12 points and a goal-differential of -24 19 matches into the season. While they are the favorites for relegation, they are at least fighting to prevent it. This team has 21 goals scored, and are pressing regardless of their opponents which has led to some exciting fixtures. They have seen over 2.5 goals hit in three matches straight and enter this match off a 5-2 loss to Lyon. They have the worst defense in the league so to get points they have to press. At plus numbers I'll take this every single time.
Auxerre are sitting 17th on the Ligue 1 table table at the moment two points below the relegation zone. The big problem with Auxerre this season is their lack of goals. They are one of the two teams in Ligue 1 who are averaging less than a goal per game, as they've only had 14 goals in their 19 matches. They take on a Toulouse side who has been on fire and out of their eight league wins, four of them have come over the last five matches. They have a tremendous frontline, and will be looking at Auxerre like a mouth-watering meal as they look to pick up three more points.
Talk about an inspired loan move! Everyone wins with Endrick moving from Real Madrid to Lyon...especially Endrick, who finally gets a chance to show his stuff on a big European stage after being too often lost in the shuffle at the Bernabeu. As for Lyon, already reaping the benefit after Endrick's hat trick last week vs. Metz. Meanwhile, as the loan doesn't have a permanent provision, Endrick returns to Real Madrid a more-seasoned performer. Short-term, a problem for Lille on Sunday as Endrick's presence has added a new sharp edge to the Lyon attack. Play Lyon on Money Line
Lyon have won nine matches straight dating back to the beginning of December as manager Paulo Fonseca has his men in tip top shape. Not only are they winning, but they're matches have seen goals galore. Six of the last seven have seen over 2.5 goals hit, and their last two matches have seen 13 goals combined. This is a team who doesn't need to play defense because they're capable of scoring multiple goals. I was surprised this line wasn't 3.5, and will play this for a full unit.
Lyon have really turned things around in the last couple months. They just beatdown PAOK 4-2 in Europa league, and before that took down Metz, Young Boys, Brest and back in the French Cup, they beat Lille 2-1 earlier this month. Lyon have been truly finding their form and have returned back to fourth on the table on the back of this run. Lille have lost their last three Ligue 1 matches straight and struggle on the road. This should be an easy three points for Lyon.