Lyon is battling for a Champions League spot next season and probably needs a win to get it sitting fourth in Ligue 1, a point behind Lille and two up on Rennais. So a draw might be enough, too, but the guys won't know that with all matches being played simultaneously on the final day. Lyon has only lost three of its 16 Ligue 1 home fixtures, winning 12. Lyon has allowed just 14 total goals in those 16 matches. Wish Draw No Bet was reasonable but it's around -340. Lens is second and won't move from that spot win or lose, so not a heck of a lot of motivation.
When you're looking at Ligue 1, it's important to know that finishing in the top six is a big deal for European competitions next season. Teams like Monaco who are 7th on the table, need to step it up in the final weeks. Monaco is two points behind Marseille at the moment and down a good chunk of goals as well. They not only need to beat dead-last on the table Metz, but they need to run it up on them to help their goal differential. Monaco are the much better team, and they need to prove that against the worst defense in France.
Ding, ding! Outlier number. Certainly guarantees nothing but yep. All of our other books have 2.5 -- probably an alternate. I don't really know how or why things flow into our system. But we can't get alts quite yet normally. This time of year, sometimes teams are kinda in "not-care" mode but both these clubs have reason to do so: Marseille for possible European qualification and Nantes to avoid being relegated. Although in France, I'm guessing even being relegated is awesome and comes with a wine and cheese platter by a river. Marseille won the reverse fixture 2-0 in early January and none of the past five in the series have topped 3 goals. If I start to get soccer alts may do damage ...
When I get an outlier number on any sport, I go investigate. This is our only number at less than -1 on Marseille (a few even have -1.5) so yep. Obviously I think only a draw beats us, but the hosts are 23 points better in the Ligue 1 table and playing for European qualification. Nice is playing not bad lately but also on a short week after beating Strasbourg on Wednesday in the Coupe de France semifinals. So a letdown game too.
Paris FC has slowly become one of my favorite clubs to wager on in recent months. This is a newly promoted side who isn't playing like a newly promoted side at all. They don't sit back and hide, trying to avoid getting blown out by big clubs. They enter every match thinking they can win and they are going blow for blow against the big dogs of Ligue 1. They are now unbeaten in their last eight, which included beating Monaco 4-1, Le Havre 3-2, and Metz 3-1. Their defense is sub par, but they're coming out going for multiple goals every match. I'm expecting this over to clear, and BTTS as well.
Lens' are continuing to battle as they attempt to do the impossible, win the league over PSG. The team is currently four points behind, and PSG still have UCL play which could cause them to falter. While the league is in PSG's hand to win or lose, Lens have to win out to stand a chance of lifting the trophy. Brest is not a good side and they are not in good form. This is the perfect chance for Lens to find some consistency and a big three points. They are the better side, and I expect them to win this one, most likely by more than one goal.
Our only book with 3.5 for this Ligue 1 matchup, and Marseille is without domestic leading goalscorer Mason Greenwood (15 goals) due to injury. Monaco is without a few guys as well but no one as significant. It lost the reverse fixture, 1-0 in December with Greenwood scoring the only goal in the 82nd minute.
Monaco have been very up and down so far this season. The team had and incredibly slow start to the season and struggled to find the consistency in the final third that they needed. They have finally started, however, to turn things around. The team has now won their last six Ligue 1 matches straight, which included massive wins over Lens, Brest, Lyon and PSG. FLorian Balogun, Maghnes Akliouche and Aleksandr Golovin have been really picking up the heat, and will look to continue their heater against a good Marseille team, but a Marseille team that is struggling on the road.
Paris and Lorient were both clubs that were promoted back to Ligue 1 this season, and have both done a great job not only avoiding the relegation battle, but surviving against massive clubs in Ligue 1. A big reason both clubs has done well is their resilience and their ability to get a point off major clubs. Lorient have picked up 10 draws this season already this season, and the only team in the league who has as many as them, is Paris, who also have 10. Both clubs will finish middle of the league, and with how often it hits, I have to take a stab at this.
I don't have enough characters to go into full detail why I like this bet so much and why Lens are as mad as they are. Short summary is that Lens are currently one point off of PSG and are trying to win the league for the first time since the 97-98 season. They were supposed to play PSG on April 11th, and the league decided to move their match to May 13, the help PSG rest against Liverpool in UCL play. This ruling is unfair, and hurts Lens chances of winning as PSG get to rest rather than play them. Lens manager, fans, and players have made it very clear they're upset, and I expect them to play some scary, pissed off footy.
WE can all agree that on paper PSG are the MUCH better club and should win this one easy peasy. Unfortunately, betting can never be that easy, and I think I found us a sneakily good line in this matchup. PSG are the better team, but just a few days after this match, they'll have to host Liverpool in Champions League, which is a much more important matchup for the Parisians. I don't expect PSG to play their best men for 90 minutes against Toulouse, and will rest some of their big names, meaning this game stays much closer than people expect it to.
When these two teams played in the reverse fixture back in August, we saw one of the highest-scoring matches of the Ligue 1 season. PSG won on the road against Toulouse 6-3. Now, I don't think we're going to see nine goals in this match, but I will say that we should at least see 3-4 goals, and I'm shocked the over is remotely playable at 2.5 goals. PSG has hit over 2.5 goals in nine of their last 10 matches across all competitions, and while Toulouse isn't quite as goal friendly, they'll have to adjust and press to goals to beat a distracted PSG side.
Is the wrong team a slight favorite in this Ligue 1 match Sunday? Perhaps as Lyon is two spots and four points higher in the table than AS Monaco. It also won the reverse fixture 3-1 on Jan. 3. But I get it as the visitors -- behind Team USA's Falorin Balogun -- are rolling and the hosts are winless in five in all competitions -- but four of those were draws and all we want here. They have yet to lose a league match at home in 2026 with two total goals conceded.
Big one from Ligue 1 regarding next season's European football with Rennes sitting sixth, two points up on seventh-place Lille. The Red and Blacks haven't dropped a point since installing Franck Haise as manager. They look to sweep both top-flight matches vs. Lille in the same campaign for the first time since 2017-18 thanks to a 2-0 road win on Jan. 3. Lille could be a bit gassed having just played a Europa League match Thursday.
Angers sits 11th in Ligue 1 and Nice 15th so, again, I'm not really sure why the home team is the dog. There don't appear to be any major player issues for Angers -- which kept its fifth home clean sheet of the domestic season last time out and tries for consecutive league shutouts for a third time. Nice has a single win in the past 15 league fixtures and has been blanked in three straight matches in all competitions. Angers won the reverse fixture 1-0 in December on a Yassin Belkhdim 33rd-minute goal.