Past Picks
Sevilla is three points and six spots higher in the La Liga table than Osasuna, which has dropped its past three league away matches by a combined score of 14-4. Sevilla has been just OK on home pitch but hasn't played a league match there since way back on Sept. 16. It won at home in this series last season, 1-0.
I'd definitely like to see an El Clasico in person before I leave this earth but guess that would mean I'd have to actually like leave my couch and board an airplane. Sounds unlikely but maybe some opportunity presents itself. Barca is yet to lose in La Liga and has an incredible plus-30 goal differential in those nine wins. It has won 23 straight home domestic matches. Real Madrid is without superstar Vinicius Junior due to suspension and No. 1 goalie Thibault Courtois due to illness. I am a bit worried about a draw so just a half. Amazingly, both clubs have won 106 of their 264 competitive El Clasicos.
I’m backing Atlético Madrid against the spread in this one. Naturally, I prefer betting totals in Atlético matches, but this feels like a spot where they could absolutely dismantle Deportivo La Coruña. Atlético are unbeaten at home this season, scoring 10 goals in those matches. On the other side, Deportivo are dealing with a slew of injuries, particularly in the midfield and attack. I have a hard time believing Deportivo can keep a clean sheet, and an equally hard time seeing how they score enough goals to keep pace. Atlético have been dominant at home, and with Deportivo missing several key players, this has all the makings of a blowout.
I truly love my job. Like talking to you folks on Discord, and it gets me out of so many yard duties. My wife is out bagging leaves and mentioned something about a rabid raccoon bite, and I'm like sorry gotta research La Liga. I may need a divorce lawyer soon. Or a yard guy. Perhaps both. I think this draws 1-1, which is basically what the model has, but will take our chances on the home side. If you see me bet a draw on here, I have hit my head. But not in the yard ....
Two very evenly matched bad teams on Monday, but Getafe is unbeaten in five at home this season in all competitions. Rayo is on a four-game winless away streak in the league. Six of the past 10 in this series have ended in a draw -- none in a Getafe win. But the +0.25 number has been covered by Getafe in six consecutive games at home overall. This smells like a 1-1 draw, which is essentially what the model has.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in seven of Atlético Madrid’s eight games this season. It has also paid off in all four of their away matches – a 3-1 win against Sevilla, a 3-0 defeat to Athletic Club, a 3-0 victory over Real Sociedad, and a 2-1 win against Alavés. Diego Simeone’s men aren’t particularly solid at the back these days, but they’re dangerous in attack, led by Julián Álvarez, Ademola Lookman, Jonathan David, and Alexander Sørloth. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in three of Espanyol’s home games. In total, their matches have averaged 2.75 goals this season, so this should be a high-scoring match.
If you had bet me even 24 months ago that I'd be fretting a La Liga match on a Friday afternoon, well, I'd be out a fair amount of money on that wager. Now this Friday 3 PM soccer is my gateway to the weekend as those Cubs matinees were during the summer. I would utterly murder this number normally, but now I see why the better team is getting a fairly decent price at DNB: Leading scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (5 goals) is out. I went and looked at U3.5 but expensive. Still think Deportivo has the home edge so will go ahead and risk the DNB but cautiously. Without DNB? No. If DNB ever becomes sentient, I am asking it out ...
Since Europe came back online, so to speak, it's weird how the books have been incredibly stingy on DNB prices. Unusable for the most part so it's nice to get a reasonable number for this La Liga match, although now I'm wondering what they know that I don't. Not seeing any additional injuries for Santander, which is three points better in the table than Valencia. The visitors have allowed the first goal in five of the past six outings.
Man, it is weird how much I have missed Euro soccer. I want to say a lot here, but let's be honest: It's mostly having an afternoon reason to care. I believe this draws and that's just fine for these purposes. The first games back from European competition, it's just never sure who is available. It seems the visitors have a lot more issues there, but my Spanish is about College 101: Lapiz.
Will spin today's Real Betis win into Friday's La Liga match. Espanyol is about mid-table with two wins and a draw in six league matches, while Roberto Fernández has been stellar with six goals -- one more than his team has given up. Elche is last in the table with just two points and a minus-8 goal differential. It has been scored upon in each match and allowed a league-high 16 goals. The hosts are unbeaten in the past six meetings; they drew at Elche, 2-2, in the last in March. Sadly, DNB is too expensive.
Led by Rodrigo Riquelme's two goals, Real Betis is near the top of the La Liga table with four wins and a loss. It is unbeaten at home, including a win over Real Madrid. Pretty healthy as well, while Getafe has some injury concerns and it is near bottom table with just five points and only three goals scored -- all on home pitch. The visitors have taken only two of the past 11 in the series and per usual I think only a draw gets us.
Probably does end in a draw but Deportivo is unbeaten in its return to the top flight in Spain (two wins, three draws). Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been awesome with five goals. It's the side's first meeting with Sevilla since 2018. Starting Sevilla defender Arouna Sangante is out, while the hosts are fully healthy. No player for the visitors has more than one goal. Deportivo have not beaten Sevilla in the league since October 2009 but hopefully that changes today. I thought about Under 2.5 but such a good DNB price.
Atlético Madrid at home is one of the best bets in footy. Osasuna are coming off two ugly losses, 5-2 to Alavés and 2-0 to Espanyol, and generated just 0.85 xG in the latter. No Julián Álvarez certainly matters, but Atlético have been a machine at the Metropolitano. They went 15-1-3 at home last season with 38.78 xG compared to just 17.76 xGA. The year before, they went 14-4-1 while posting 42.02 xG and 14.80 xGA. A 29-5-4 home record over the last two La Liga seasons is enough to back them against a sliding side.
Alaves sits a surprising third in La Liga with 10 points through five matches and unbeaten in three at home, outscoring foes 9-2. Bottom-table Valencia has been the worst team in Spain and just sacked coach Carlos Corberán and chief executive officer Ron Gourlay. The club's B team manager Oscar Sanchez is running the show for now. Los Ché have scored one goal and conceded 10 in five La Liga matches without a win. Alaves is unbeaten in the past seven at home in this series.
Villarreal sit as favorites to take down Real Betis in LaLiga play and I frankly don't see why. We're getting a big case of "home field advantage" on these lines because Villarreal have been horrendous to start their season off. Four matches played and zero wins to show for it. They're taking on a Real Betis side who have been solid this season picking up three wins out of their four opening match. Real Betis have no fitness issues and are the better squad, they should handle this easily.