Winners and losers from the 2023 NFL Draft: Michael Pittman, Bijan Robinson among Fantasy Football winners
Which players saw their Fantasy value impacted the most by the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?
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Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft wasn't as exciting as a 2022 draft that deliveredthe A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown trade packages, but it certainly held its fair share of surprises. Jahmyr Gibbs joined Bijan Robinson as the first running backs to be selected with top-12 picks since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and Gibbs' collegiate data suggests that he could pile up PPR points with the Detroit Lions if his selection is indeed a signal that D'Andre Swift will be traded. It was also a bit of a surprise to see four wide receivers go in Round 1, as picks 20-23 all were wideouts. Another surprise came in the form of the Buffalo Bills trading up to make Dalton Kincaid the only Round 1 tight end selection.
All of this change is sure to cause ripples across the Fantasy landscape. Below, I detail some players whose Fantasy value I believe to have been impacted the most after Day 1. We'll also take a look at overall winners and losers following the conclusion of the draft, so be sure to check back to SportsLine for that.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Running backs with this type of draft capital get fed touches.
Arthur Smith's Atlanta Falcons were historically run-heavy in 2022, and even though Tyler Allgeier was fantastic as a rookie, they decided to use the eighth overall pick on Bijan Robinson. The Falcons are going to feed the rock to Robinson.
Even though Atlanta's offense was incredibly predictable in 2022, they averaged the third-highest rushing expected points added (EPA) per play. Arthur Smith's systems have ranked top-three in rushing yardage in three of the past four seasons, dating back to his time as Tennessee's offensive coordinator.
I can't wrap my head around the pick for Atlanta. Robinson's strengths are a bit redundant -- the rushing system in place was already working. With elite young pass-catchers needing only to escape the worst QB play in the league, the direction seemed clear for the Falcons this offseason. Instead, what is clear is their continued commitment to the run. Robinson projects similar to Najee Harris from a volume standpoint and is a far more explosive talent. The only players I would for sure draft ahead of Robinson at the Fantasy RB position in 2023 are Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Austin Ekeler -- he belongs in the next tier with Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, and Breece Hall. For Dynasty purposes, I'd take Hall and Taylor over Robinson, but I wouldn't blame anyone who considered him the most valuable Dynasty RB. If Atlanta gets passable QB play and this becomes an above-average offense, Robinson could achieve early-career Todd Gurley levels of production.
Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman's average depth of target fell off of a cliff with a 37-year-old Matt Ryan at QB in 2022, and the promising Year 2 signs that Indy's top receiver displayed did not amount to a breakout into stardom in Year 3. That could change this coming season.
Anthony Richardson's addition also is exciting news for Alec Pierce, who had one of the highest average route depths (9.6 yards) in the NFL as a rookie. For more context on what we learned about Pierce and the rest of the rookie WR/TE group in 2022, check out this advanced analytical rookie recap article that I published earlier this offseason.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson got his contract, he got the veteran receiver that he wanted in Odell Beckham Jr., and he got speed to burn in the form of Round 1 selection Zay Flowers. Flowers brings some analytical question marks, but his talent is undeniable when watching him zoom around the field.
The Ravens have flexibility with this receiving corps -- Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman can each work the intermediate area of the field or stretch opposing defenses. This is by far the most talented group of pass catchers that Jackson has ever had at his disposal. After Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen, Jackson sits in a tier with Justin Fields as discounted threats to finish as the QB1 and top overall scorer in Fantasy.
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been searching for a complementary weapon to work the middle area of the field since moving on from Cole Beasley. They traded up to No. 25 following a run of four straight wide receiver selections, and I assumed they were going to grab slot specialist Josh Downs. Instead, Buffalo surprised everyone and made Dalton Kincaid the sole tight end to be selected in Round 1 of a 2023 tight end drat class that has the potential to be remembered as one of the best of all time.
Kincaid's collegiate analytical profile is too legit, and Buffalo's move up in the draft to invest Round 1 capital in him signals just how important he is to the franchise. Dawson Knox has received ample opportunity. His time as a fringe Fantasy-relevant asset is finally over. Kincaid will face an uphill battle for Fantasy relevancy as a rookie, but his Dynasty outlook is extremely exciting while attached to Josh Allen.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Even with 18 touchdowns over the past two seasons, Metcalf has finished below his target per route run implied PPR production expectation each year.
The target volume that Metcalf has received over the past two seasons is unlike anything that we've seen from him at any other point in his career. Seattle has shortened his route tree and made him the focal point of the offense. The results -- 967 receiving yards in 2021 and 1,048 in 2022 -- have not been all that exciting.
So, Seattle went and grabbed one of the most efficient yardage creators at the WR position to come out of the NFL Draft over the past 10 years. I'd be very hesitant to expect top-20 Fantasy WR production from Metcalf while competing with Lockett and Smith-Njigba for targets in 2023; it will likely require an outlier performance in the touchdown department for him to not be a bust under his new set of circumstances.
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