The Golden State Warriors are 1-14 all-time in playoff series they trail 3-1, which is the predicament the defending NBA champions find themselves facing tonight as they host the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series. The Warriors are 7.5-point favorites at BetMGM to extend the series. The spread action is mixed, but there's a ton of money on the LA money line and on Stephen Curry props. Click here for model picks.
Golden State opened at -5.5 but is now -7.5 and taking 49% of the bets and 59% of the money. The total has dropped from 226.5 to 225.5, with 50% of the bets and 64% of the money coming in on the Over. At +260 on the money line, the Lakers are getting 81% of the bets and 74% of the handle.
This is the third time in this dynastic era that the Warriors have been down 3-1. They lost the 2019 NBA Finals in six to Toronto and won the 2016 Western Conference Finals in seven over Oklahoma City. In the previous round against the Kings, the Warriors became the first defending champions to lose the first two games of a playoff series but eventually emerge victorious.
Will Steve Kerr make any lineup changes tonight? Both Kevon Looney and Jordan Poole look lost off the bench, and there are already reports about discontent with Poole in the locker room and the possibility he could be traded this offseason. Poole scored 21 points in Game 1 but has totaled just 11 since, including zero in a mere 10 minutes in Game 4. His confidence might be shot. Moses Moody has been taking his minutes of late.
No single Golden State lineup has appeared in all four games of this series. Their most-used group included JaMychal Green in the starting five, which lasted all of two games and logged only 24 minutes. The Lakers' starting five has played 55 minutes together in the series.
It's not like the Warriors played poorly overall in Game 4. They led by seven points entering the fourth quarter, but Curry and Klay Thompson combined to go just 4-for-15, while Lonnie Walker IV had the quarter of his life for the Lakers with 15 points.
Curry Over 30.5 points (-125) and Over 6.5 assists (-130) are two of the most popular player props tonight, along with Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points (-110).
Curry is averaging 25.3 points and 8.0 assists per game in the series. He had a series-high 31 points and 14 assists in Game 4 en route to a triple-double. Curry ran 48 pick-and-rolls in Game 4, his highest total this season. The Warriors scored 1.175 points per possession out of those plays -- an impressive rate. Davis is averaging 22.3 PPG in the series and has topped 24.5 points twice.
On the updated series line, the Lakers are -500 and Warriors are +375. LeBron James is 17-0 all-time when his team has a 3-1 series lead.
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