Jason La Canfora's NFL Week 12 picks: Take the Titans, plus same-game parlay, player props, and more best bets
NFL insider Jason La Canfora shares his best bets for Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.
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Thanksgiving is over (and I hope yours was wonderful). Which means the playoff push is upon us.
Even with an expanded schedule, we are hitting the two-third mark of the season, and it has become quite clear that a number of teams are going absolutely nowhere. Benching poor-to-middling young quarterbacks has become all the rage. More coaching firings won't be all that far behind.
What these lost seasons bring out within some particular rosters will play no small role in how these games unfold and which bets hit. We know it's been a year of the underdog (89-70-4 entering Week 12 per CBS research) and the year of the Under (91-71-2). Will it continue at that rate as the gulf between the haves (as in have-something-to-play-fors) and have-nots becomes even more acute? I'm not so sure.
Give me Geno Smith off the bye, at home, against a horrible defense (and all-around bad football team). Don't let Denver fool you last week; Las Vegas still has serious deficiencies stopping almost anyone and it will show up in Seattle. Pete Carroll will zone it up and bracket Davante Adams and we'll see if anyone else can make a play. The Raiders are 1-5 on the road, with the eighth-worst scoring differential away from home. Their only win outside a dome was against Denver. Seattle is 3-1 at home, allowing 16 points or less in three of these games. The Raiders allow the highest opposing passer rating in the NFL and Geno Smith is second in that category. Seattle is barely allowing more than 17 points per game over the last five outings. The Raiders' pass rush rates stink, even with Maxx Crosby playing at a high level. Smith will pick them apart and the Raiders will have to chase this game, which will preclude them from running Josh Jacobs as much as they'd like.
If you pay any attention to this space, you know we've been backing Mike Vrabel's team with great vigor. We're not gonna stop now. Disrespect them again and give them points at home? We'll gladly take them. Ryan Tannehill is playing his best ball in a long time and the Titans' bullying defense is getting even healthier. They sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the playoffs and they will get abundant pressure again in this rematch. Joe Mixon is likely out with a concussion and we'll see if Ja'Marr Chase is really back. The Titans have been off since a Thursday night beatdown of the Packers in Green Bay; under Vrabel the Titans are 8-0 both straight up and against the spread with eight days or more rest in the regular season. Tennessee is allowing just over 15 points per game during its 7-1 run and the Cincy offense is going to have difficulty rolling up points here. Tannehill won't throw three picks like he did in the Divisional round to allow the Bengals to survive that one, 19-16. I love Vrabel in a revenge spot at home like this.
The Cardinals are a complete mess. We told you they were fugazi going back to the start of the season, but the utter lack of preparation and professionalism is striking. Kliff Kingsbury knows kollege is kalling and he's been fully exposed at this point. Arizona has a woeful roster and is limited in scope on both sides of the ball by. I don't care if Kyler Murray plays or not, this has beatdown potential. The Chargers finally have some healthy receivers and they are letting Justin Herbert make big boy throws downfield with regularity. Austin Ekeler could get endless targets and the Cardinals would just be chasing him around. Arizona is operating on a short week after getting beat up by San Francisco and is coming from an international game with a bad coaching staff. The Cards stink at home to begin with (4-10 at home ATS since the start of next season). The Chargers don't have a homefield advantage so they do their best work on the road (9-4 ATS since start of last season). They've also covered in five straight road games. I like where their offense is trending for the first time in a long time, and the Cardinals look very much like a group waiting for the other shoe to drop. (Added bonus – heard the Over/Under was 1.5 on yet another member of the coaching staff getting whacked by kickoff).
If this gets to 16.5 I'm out, but I still like it here. Patrick Mahomes rolls out of bed with 30 points on the scoreboard. The only question is how far over that figure do they go against this sadsack bunch still seemingly suffered from the Super Bowl hangover. And can the Rams, with all their injuries and QB woes, manage to score more than 14 points themselves, even in garbage time? I don't think so. Matthew Stafford hasn't thrown a fourth-quarter touchdown all season, and he may not even be playing. It's pretty bleak. Chris Jones is going to smother whomever gets tasked with playing quarterback for the Rams given the state of their offensive line. Mahomes will stay away from Jalen Ramsey and pick everyone else apart as he pulls further away in the MVP race.
The Ravens have rebuilt a top defense and have very little offense to speak of. That's particularly the case when it comes to passing the ball downfield with any regularity. They try to bleed the clock and play at a slow pace. They want to run the ball 20 times or more in the second half. The Jacksonville offense is pedestrian, but the team has some pieces on defense. The Under is 13-7 with these two teams this season. Six of the Ravens' last seven games have gone Under, including a joint effort with the Panthers to produce 16 total points Sunday. This game won't be that low – there will be far better weather conditions if nothing else – but it won't be a shootout, either. The Ravens likely being without stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley will be a problem and the Panthers exposed some things with their ends crashing down on the pistol runs last week. The Jags can mimic. Lamar Jackson is the 27th-rated passer on third downs; which makes it tough to sustain drives and compile points.
Denver has an elite defense and the Panthers have enough quality players on that side of the ball to be stout any given week when it all comes together. Neither offense is watchable. Neither team frankly has an offense. Carolina can run the ball some; at least until last week. And we're back to Sam Darnold now? Oh, I've seen that movie. This might be a 3-3 game in the fourth quarter like that Jets-Patriots game in Week 11. We get an interim coach against a guy who looked like he was in need of an interim coach replacing him in Week 1. This should be an affront to modern football. The Under is 16-5 between these two teams this season and I really don't know how low they'd have to set it to scare me off it this Sunday.
Yet another team in a quarterback crisis without any real solution on the roster! I'm sensing a trend! The 49ers defense is in full peacock mode right now and I wouldn't put a shutout or two past them at this point. The Saints make a habit of turning the football over, and the 49ers will get at least two out of Andy Dalton before he makes way for Jameis Winston, who has turned giveaways into performance art. San Francisco has not allowed a second-half point in the last three weeks and don't seem inclined to give away yards and points even when up big (as Colt McCoy learned).
All the talk about the Texans' ridiculous quarterback situation has taken attention off Lovie Smith's abject failure of a defense. They are allowing the highest QB rating in the NFL since Week 6, the highest completion percentage and yards per attempt. And now they face the NFL's leading QB in rating and pretty much everything else and a team loaded with weapons to attack an overwhelmed secondary playing an outdated scheme. Tua Tagovailoa has three straight games with at least three TDs, no picks and a QB rating 135 or higher. Miami averages an astounding 6.79 yards per play when he is on the field.
Props TBD
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