Fantasy Football 2021: Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp among biggest risers in advanced target metric
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs breaks down whose target per route run rate has risen and fallen the most from 2020
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Week after week, Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel have delivered for Fantasy managers in 2021, proving to be a pair of the biggest difference-makers at the wide receiver position when compared to where each was drafted. What do these two have in common? Both are among the biggest risers in targets per route run rate, which has a stronger correlation to Fantasy points than other advanced metrics you may have seen such as air yards, red zone targets and yards per route run.
This metric helped SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs predict Davante Adams' massive 2020 Fantasy output. Nearly every 2020 Fantasy Draft prep source listed Michael Thomas as the WR1, but those who took Gibbs' advice were well on their way to a Fantasy championship after grabbing Adams at the back end of the first round.
Now that the 2021 season has reached its midpoint, Gibbs has taken a look at the biggest risers and fallers in targets per route run rate while breaking down the names you need to know. Following the conclusion of Week 10's games, Gibbs will provide analysis on which players' target per route run data foretells a big finish to the Fantasy season. He'll also publish several research pieces on the best historical comparisons and the possible outlooks for the relevant rookies with the data we have through 10 weeks. This info and the context surrounding it is relevant to any serious Fantasy player or sports bettor but is truly crucial for Dynasty players who may be able to acquire overlooked rookies at a fraction of what their updated NFL data suggests that they're really worth.
Here's Gibbs' explanation of targets per route run:
Yes, this stat really is as simple as its name suggests. To find a player's target per route run (TPRR) rate, you simply divide their target total by their route total. Voila, you just solved for the most highly-correlated Fantasy stat available!
Ultimately, TPRR is just a representation of a player's ability to demand targets from his quarterback. It displays the percentage of his routes on which he is targeted. Changing factors within an offense can cause a player's TPRR rate to fluctuate; no stat is perfect. But generally speaking, especially among the top receivers, TPRR rates remain fairly constant -- at least compared to many more frequently used Fantasy stats.
TPRR correlated more highly with Fantasy scoring in 2020 than any other opportunity-based stat I use. If you are totally unfamiliar with the stat, I examined it in more detail and gave specific examples of past use cases for it in this article. It is a rather quick read; I would recommend checking it out before diving into today's player-specific analysis.
So which receivers and tight ends have seen their TPRR rate jump the most? And which disappointing players can be linked to a fall in TPRR rate? ... Join SportsLine here to see the complete data and which players you should focus on over the remainder of the 2021 season!
(Players whose target per route run rate has increased by at least 15 percent from 2020 to 2021)
+63% -- Tyler Conklin (up from 12.3% to 20.1%)
+48% -- Dan Arnold (15.1% ==> 22.4%)
+39% -- Freddie Swain (9.4% ==> 13.1%)
+38% -- Mike Williams (17.5% ==> 24.1%)
+32% -- Dalton Schultz (16.1% ==> 21.3%)
+30% -- Christian Kirk (15.4% ==> 20%)
+30% -- Michael Pittman (16.7% ==> 21.7%)
+29% -- Cooper Kupp (24.1% ==> 31.1%)
+29% -- Tyreek Hill (22.8% ==> 29.4%)
+23% -- Brandin Cooks (21.3% ==> 26.3%)
+23% -- DK Metcalf (20.4% ==> 25%)
+21% -- Deebo Samuel (25.4% ==> 30.7%)
+21% -- Hunter Renfrow (20.5% ==> 25%)
+19% -- D.J. Moore (22.1% ==> 26.3%)
The massive jumps forward from Tyler Conklin and Dan Arnold are likely mostly due to the fact that both have relatively small sample sizes to draw from over the past two seasons. I would expect Conklin's rate to regress as the season goes on, but Arnold's rate may stick. He has far less competition for targets in Jacksonville than he did as a member of the Panthers.
Freddie Swain's step forward in Year 2 is exciting, and something that is worth noting for Dynasty players. But with Dee Eskridge finally healthy, Swain may be out of a job soon.
The excellent early-season usage we saw for Mike Williams has started to look like an aberration as the season has progressed and he's given us more data. I wrote in more detail about Williams' rest of season outlook here.
The step forward in targets per route run from Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel has been obvious, but because of Kansas City's offensive struggles, Tyreek Hill's 29 percent spike has flown under the radar. The same can be said for DK Metcalf -- the gross offensive environment over the past month has caused it to go overlooked, but a 23 percent Year 3 jump is extremely exciting for his long-term outlook. I speculated on what might happen with an increase in targets per route run for both Hill and Metcalf before the season, you can find profiles for Hill and Metcalf at the links.
The rookie year data for Michael Pittman was not encouraging. The list of rookie receivers who ran at least 350 routes and recorded a TPRR rate below 16 percent in the four years I have the data is not an encouraging one. The young Colt appears to have bucked that trend, though -- Pittman's TPRR rate is up by 30 percent in Year 2! It is worth noting that he's only had a rate above 20 percent in one of his past five games. Pittman did not draw targets at a high rate in college, either, so I will be very interested to see how the rest of his 2021 season plays out.
(Players whose target per route run rate has decreased by at least 15 percent from 2020 to 2021)
-47% -- Allen Lazard (17.8% ==> 9.4%)
-38% -- James Washington (18.7% ==> 11.6%)
-37% -- Brandon Aiyuk (22.2% ==> 13.9%)
-35% -- Robby Anderson (24.7% ==> 16%)
-29% -- Emmanuel Sanders (22.5% ==> 15.9%)
-26% -- Allen Robinson (24.9% ==> 18.5%)
-25% -- DeAndre Hopkins (25.6% ==> 19.1%)
-25% -- Jalen Reagor (17.8% ==> 13.4%)
-24% -- Ezekiel Elliott (18.3% ==> 13.9%)
-22% -- Alvin Kamara (31% ==> 24.3%)
-21% -- Devin Duvernay (13.5% ==> 10.7%)
-20% -- Evan Engram (21.5% ==> 17.3%)
-18% -- Austin Ekeler (27.7% ==> 22.7%)
-17% -- Austin Hooper (23% ==> 19%)
-16% -- Travis Kelce (25.6% ==> 21.6%)
-16% -- George Kittle (28.3% ==> 23.7%)
-16% -- Darren Waller (27.7% ==> 23.4%)
-16% -- Aaron Jones (24.9% ==> 20.9%)
The rookie year data (find his full profile here) provided by Brandon Aiyuk was extremely exciting, but there was certainly reason for skepticism surrounding his rates. Very little of the data collected from his rookie campaign came with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on the field, so the chances of Aiyuk posting similar rates in Year 2 seemed unlikely.
Still, I did not expect such a steep drop.
Aiyuk has drawn targets on 21.4 percent of his routes over the past two games, and the Niners have actually allowed him to run more routes than Deebo in both of those games. There are signs of life! But still, at this point, most of the Year 2 data is highly discouraging -- I mean, no Fantasy-relevant player has seen a bigger dip in TPRR rate than Aiyuk.
The rate stats we got from a 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders in 2020 seemed too good to be true. He opened the 2021 season with a healthy 17.1 percent TPRR rate and a 1.76 yard per route run rate through four games, but those rates are at just 14.8 percent and 1.24 across his past four games.
I don't remember a drop as precipitous as the one we have seen from Allen Robinson from 2020 to 2021. Prior to 2021, A-Rob had never drawn targets at a rate lower than 21 percent in a season. His rates in the two years immediately preceding his disappointing 28-year-old season were 24.9 and 24.4 percent. To suddenly drop well below the league average is something I did not consider to be within his range of outcomes in 2021.
He has shown no semblance of upside, either. Robinson has only been targeted at a rate of at least 24 percent one time in 2021, and it came back in Week 1. We really have no reason to believe that things will get better.
One year older and possessing similarly discouraging data, DeAndre Hopkins raises nearly as many red flags as Robinson. He doesn't have Fantasy players nearly as upset, though, which likely has something to do with the difference in touchdowns (7-to-1) between the two star wideouts.
Hopkins had at least shown some signs of getting his season on track prior to his injury, though. From Week 5 on, Hopkins has drawn a target on 22.4 percent of his routes. That's still a far cry from what we had seen in the four years prior (he was between 25.6 and 30.2 percent in each of those seasons), but it's at least a notable improvement from his 16.8 percent rate through the first four games.
We want to see clear improvement with second-year receivers. The fact that Jalen Reagor and Devin Duvernay find themselves on this list after underwhelming rookie seasons is certainly not encouraging for their long-term outlook.
Alvin Kamara's TPRR rate was above 30 percent in three of his first four years in the NFL and was no lower than 28 percent in any of those seasons. In his first year without Drew Brees, Kamara's rate is down to 24.3 percent. The Saints have gotten him more involved as a route runner, which has alleviated the dip in per-route efficiency somewhat. Still though, the days of Kamara being the league's clear TPRR leader at the RB position may be over. Youngsters like D'Andre Swift and Michael Carter are coming for his throne.
You'll notice that for each of the "big-three" at the TE position who has seen a decrease in TPRR rate, there is a corresponding WR teammate with a boosted TPRR rate. Travis Kelce's rate is down by 16 percent, while Tyreek Hill's is up by 29 percent. George Kittle's rate has dipped, and Deebo's exploded to new heights. Darren Waller has taken a slight step back from the target dominance that he exhibited in 2020, while Derek Carr has learned to trust Hunter Renfrow more than ever before.
I would guess that these discrepancies will balance out somewhat as the season progresses. But, it's possible that the ascent of their WR teammates will simply prevent these stud tight ends from drawing targets at the absurdly high rates that we have seen from them previously.
He didn't quite hit the 15 percent qualifier, but Julio Jones has seen a 13 percent dip in TPRR rate from 2020 to 2021. And that has come following a 16 percent dip from 2019 to 2020, which followed an eight percent dip from 2018 to 2019 and a six percent dip from 2017 to 2018. You surely see the picture I am painting.
It's entirely possible that Jones' rate will do nothing but increase from this point on. There is little-to-no claim for targets after A.J. Brown and Julio take their fill. And it is possible that Jones' health has contributed to his uncharacteristically average rates to this point. We're also only dealing with a 154-route sample size at this point. He absolutely could rebound and enjoy a productive second-half.
But, he is a 32-year-old receiver who has been showing diminishing returns and struggles with health for half a decade at this point. I never want to find myself doubting Julio Jones, but the data that we have is not encouraging.
Find the full 2020 leaderboard at the bottom of this article.
32.5% -- Davante Adams
31.1% -- Cooper Kupp
30.7% -- Deebo Samuel
29.4% -- Tyreek Hill
29.3% -- A.J. Brown
28.6% -- Diontae Johnson
26.7% -- Sterling Shepard
26.4% -- Calvin Ridley
26.3% -- D.J. Moore
26.3% -- Brandin Cooks
25.5% -- Keenan Allen
25.3% -- D'Andre Swift
25.0% -- DK Metcalf
25.0% -- Hunter Renfrow
24.9% -- Myles Gaskin
24.6% -- Terry McLaurin
24.6% -- Tee Higgins
24.4% -- J.D. McKissic
24.3% -- Alvin Kamara
24.3% -- Cole Beasley
24.1% -- Stefon Diggs
24.1% -- Mike Williams
23.8% -- Tyler Lockett
23.7% -- George Kittle
23.6% -- CeeDee Lamb
23.5% -- Ja'Marr Chase
23.4% -- Darren Waller
23.2% -- Marquise Brown
23.1% -- Mark Andrews
23.0% -- Rondale Moore
22.9% -- Jakobi Meyers
22.7% -- Austin Ekeler
22.6% -- Jaylen Waddle
22.6% -- Corey Davis
22.5% -- Justin Jefferson
22.4% -- Dan Arnold
22.3% -- Chase Claypool
21.9% -- DeVante Parker
21.8% -- Najee Harris
21.8% -- T.J. Hockenson
21.7% -- Michael Pittman
21.7% -- Amari Cooper
21.6% -- Travis Kelce
21.6% -- Robert Woods
21.6% -- Kyle Pitts
21.5% -- Noah Fant
21.5% -- Elijah Moore
21.3% -- Dalton Schultz
21.1% -- Darnell Mooney
21.1% -- Jamison Crowder
20.9% -- Zach Ertz
20.9% -- Aaron Jones
20.9% -- Adam Thielen
20.6% -- Courtland Sutton
20.6% -- Pat Freiermuth
20.6% -- Chase Edmonds
20.4% -- Leonard Fournette
20.2% -- DeVonta Smith
20.2% -- Chris Godwin
20.2% -- Laviska Shenault Jr.
20.1% -- Julio Jones
20.1% -- Tyler Conklin
20.1% -- Marvin Jones
20.0% -- Christian Kirk
20.0% -- Mike Gesicki
19.7% -- Tyler Boyd
19.7% -- Odell Beckham Jr. 19.5% -- Cole Kmet 19.2% -- Mike Evans 19.1% -- DeAndre Hopkins 19.0% -- Austin Hooper 19.0% -- Dallas Goedert 18.5% -- Allen Robinson 18.2% -- Mike Davis 18.1% -- Jared Cook 18.0% -- Mecole Hardman 17.9% -- Kendrick Bourne 17.6% -- Jonathan Taylor 17.6% -- Marquez Callaway 17.4% -- Kenny Golladay 17.3% -- Evan Engram 17.0% -- Hunter Henry 17.0% -- K.J. Osborn 16.7% -- A.J. Green16.4% -- Jordan Akins 16.4% -- Joe Mixon 16.2% -- Ryan Griffin 16.0% -- Van Jefferson 16.0% -- Robby Anderson 16.0% -- Devin Singletary 16.0% -- Tyler Higbee 15.9% -- Zach Pascal 15.9% -- Keelan Cole 15.9% -- Emmanuel Sanders 15.7% -- Tim Patrick 15.7% -- Adam Trautman 15.6% -- Randall Cobb 15.6% -- Rashard Higgins 15.3% -- Devontae Booker 15.3% -- Nelson Agholor 15.3% -- Ricky Seals-Jones 15.3% -- Amon-Ra St. Brown 15.2% -- Darrel Williams 15.2% -- Hayden Hurst 15.0% -- Robert Tonyan 14.9% -- Dawson Knox 14.9% -- Byron Pringle 14.8% -- Kalif Raymond 14.5% -- Melvin Gordon 14.4% -- Nico Collins 14.0% -- Mohamed Sanu 13.9% -- Ezekiel Elliott 13.9% -- Brandon Aiyuk 13.7% -- Darrell Henderson 13.5% -- Quez Watkins 13.5% -- Cameron Brate 13.4% -- Terrace Marshall Jr. 13.4% -- Jalen Reagor 13.2% -- Ced Wilson 13.1% -- Freddie Swain 13.0% -- Jack Doyle 12.7% -- Durham Smythe 12.7% -- Olamide Zaccheaus 12.6% -- Chester Rogers 12.5% -- Adam Humphries 12.5% -- Bryan Edwards 11.9% -- Ian Thomas 11.8% -- C.J. Uzomah 11.6% -- James Washington 10.7% -- Devin Duvernay 10.3% -- Donovan Peoples-Jones 9.4% -- Allen Lazard 9.3% -- Jalen Guyton 9.2% -- Chris Conley 8.1% -- Demarcus Robinson