In recent years, Fantasy analysis has become focused on more advanced metrics -- air yards, yards per route run, and red zone targets, to name a few. Focusing on a player's share of his team's total targets or air yards has become more prevalent as well, as the Fantasy and DFS space has become more and more competitive.
The Fantasy football research process has become more efficient over time as the collective space has worked together to weed out the noisy stats and let the cream rise to the top. Generally speaking, today's most commonly referenced stats also are some of the most highly correlated to Fantasy production.
SportsLine's Fantasy analyst Jacob Gibbs believes there are still improvements that can be made to the Fantasy research process, though. Gibbs identified an overlooked advanced metric that has a stronger correlation to Fantasy points than any of the aforementioned staples of Fantasy research. This metric helped Gibbs predict Davante Adams' massive 2020 Fantasy output. Nearly every 2020 Fantasy Draft prep source listed Michael Thomas as the WR1, but those who took Gibbs' advice were well on their way to a Fantasy championship after grabbing Adams at the back end of the first round.
That's not all, though; using this overlooked metric, Gibbs highlighted 10 players who appear to be on the precipice of a breakout in 2021. He also found five wide receivers whose 2020 target per route run data indicates that they may be overvalued for Fantasy in 2021, including Cowboys receiver Michael Gallup, who will have to fight for targets with two popular Fantasy selections all year in Dallas barring an injury. See Gibbs' full analysis below.
So which receivers do the target per route run data suggest are ones to avoid in Fantasy drafts? And which players does Gibbs expect a big step forward from with more playing time in 2021? ... Join SportsLine here to see the complete data and which players Gibbs is focused on in 2021 drafts!
Yes, this stat really is as simple as its name suggests. To find a player's target per route run (TPRR) rate, you simply divide their target total by their route total. Voila, you just solved for the most highly-correlated Fantasy stat available!
Ultimately, TPRR is just a representation of a player's ability to demand targets from his quarterback. It displays the percentage of his routes on which he is targeted. Changing factors within an offense can cause a player's TPRR rate to fluctuate; no stat is perfect. But generally speaking, especially among the top receivers, TPRR rates remain fairly constant -- at least compared to many more frequently used Fantasy stats.
TPRR correlated more highly with Fantasy scoring in 2020 than any other opportunity-based stat I use. If you are totally unfamiliar with the stat, I examined it in more detail and gave specific examples of past use cases for it in this article. It is a rather quick read; I would recommend checking it out before diving into today's player-specific analysis.
2018 TPRR -- 23.5 percent
2019 TPRR -- 18.3 percent
2020 TPRR -- 19.5 percent
JuJu's TPRR rate did technically rise from 2019 to 2020, but that's hardly an impressive feat when you consider that his average depth of target (aDOT) fell so drastically. Given the types of routes he was running, JuJu absolutely needs a TPRR rate above 20 percent to bring any sort of Fantasy upside.
The types of routes the Steelers used Smith-Schuster on changed drastically in 2020:
Average route depth by season
2017-19 - 7.1 yards
2020 - 6.2 yards
Average depth of target by season
2017-19 - 9.12 yards
20 - 5.49 yards
Smith-Schuster's 5.49-yard aDOT in 2020 was the lowest rate of any qualified receiver in the past five seasons.
The change in usage we have seen from JuJu has been so drastic over the past few years that he was one of the headliners in my 2021 Do Not Draft List. Teammates Diontae Johnson (find his advanced stat player profile here) and Chase Claypool (profile) both boasted extremely exciting TPRR rates in 2020, and the career trajectories for those two receivers seem to clearly be heading in the opposite direction of Smith-Schuster's as he enters his fifth season.
2018 TPRR -- 15.3 percent
2019 TPRR -- 21.9 percent
2020 TPRR -- 15.5 percent
Gallup's per-route rates were excellent at Colorado State, but that did not translate at the NFL level as a rookie. He was targeted on just 15.3 percent of his routes and only caught 48.5 percent of those targets. He rebounded in a big way in 2019, though. Gallup joined Amari Cooper with over 1,100 receiving yards, and his 21.9 percent TPRR rate was nearly as high as Cooper's 22.4 percent rate. Among receivers with 350 routes run, only 17 were targeted at a higher rate than Gallup in 2019.
Gallup's roller coaster of a career continued right on course in 2020 though, as his TPRR rate almost dropped all the way to the lows from his rookie season. And his splits before Dak's injury sure do not inspire any confidence heading into 2021.
TPRR rate during the weeks Dak Prescott started:
24.5 percent -- Amari Cooper
20.3 percent -- CeeDee Lamb
10.5 percent -- Michael Gallup
What we saw from Gallup in 2019 was super encouraging for a 23-year-old, and his excellent college TPRR rates do offer some reason for optimism. But we can't ignore his horrendous rates from 2018 and 2020. CeeDee Lamb's rookie rates inspire a lot of confidence heading into his second season, and Amari Cooper's rates suggested that he was on his way to a career year prior to Dak's injury in 2020. Gallup's arrow seems to be pointed in the wrong direction relative to his teammates, and his one season of encouraging TPRR data at the NFL level isn't enough for me to ignore that.
2020 TPRR -- 15.6 percent
Pittman was never targeted at a high rate in three years at USC, either. His 24.4 percent TPRR rate in 2019 was his highest mark in three college seasons. Among 411 wide receivers with at least 350 routes run in the four years I have the data, that rate ranked in the 66th percentile. That's not bad, but it's not really what you would expect for a player taken 34th overall in a draft class that was deep at his position.
And in his first year as a pro, we again saw Pittman fail to draw targets at a high rate. There was tons of opportunity, too. It's not like the situation for Gabriel Davis (13.2 percent TPRR), whose numbers can be taken with a grain of salt given the amount of competition he had for targets.
The list of rookie receivers who ran at least 350 routes and recorded a TPRR rate below 16 percent in the four years I have the data is not an encouraging one:
15.9% -- Antonio Callaway
15.6% -- Michael Pittman
15.3% -- Michael Gallup
15% -- Anthony Miller
14.9% -- John Ross
14.8% -- Courtland Sutton
14.1% -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
14.1% -- Zay Jones
11% -- Laquon Treadwell
10.2% -- Demarcus Robinson
9.4% -- James Washington
9% -- Jaylen Guyton
Gallup and Sutton are the only names on that list who showed an ability to draw targets at a higher rate beyond their disappointing rookie season. It's possible that we'll see Pittman take a step forward in the same way Sutton did from Year 1 to Year 2. No one on Indy's roster stands out as a true target hog; the only thing standing in Pittman's way would seem to be his own ability to get open and draw his quarterback's attention.
If placing a bet on which young Colts receiver will take advantage of the opportunity in front of them, I would choose Parris Campbell. Campbell had an elite 34.4 percent career TPRR rate at Ohio State, and he was targeted on 36 percent of his routes in his final season as a Buckeye. He only has 159 routes at the pro level, but Campbell's 20.1 percent TPRR inspires more confidence than Pittman's rookie season rate.
2017 TPRR -- 22.3 percent
2018 TPRR -- 21.2 percent
2019 TPRR -- 22.7 percent
2020 TPRR -- 19.3 percent
Like JuJu, Evans' drop in TPRR is especially troubling when you consider that his aDOT also dropped.
I'm not sure if the decrease in aDOT was necessarily Tom Brady's fault, as the Buccaneers trailed only the Denver Broncos in terms of air yards per attempt in 2020. The more likely culprit is the fact that the Bucs found themselves needing to dig out of negative game scripts by chucking it deep to Evans at a much lower rate than when the infamous YOLO-ball combination of Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick was pioneering the ship. Those were good times, indeed, and no one had more fun than Evans -- as evidenced by his career-high 15.3-yard aDOT during the two-year stretch.
In his first season with Brady at QB, Evans saw his aDOT dip to a career-low 12.1 yards. He had never finished a season with fewer than 1,800 air yards prior to 2020, but Evans only saw 1,320 air yards go his way last season.
The effect was obvious -- Evans had averaged over 2.3 yards per route run in the two years prior but averaged just 1.79 in 2020. A career-high 13 touchdowns were enough to supplement the loss in yardage, though. Evans' role when in scoring distance suggests that double-digit touchdowns remain well within his range of outcomes while playing for one of the league's best offenses, but his lowered TPRR rate and aDOT suggest that Fantasy players should get used to lower yardage outputs.
This makes Evans a more volatile and touchdown dependent player than ever, but his splits in the latter half of 2020 have me cautiously optimistic that he'll retain top-15 Fantasy WR value in 2021.
All four of the games Chris Godwin missed came in the first half of the season, so you probably assume that Evans had much better numbers in the first half, right? The opposite is actually true:
First eight games -- 15.8 percent TPRR, 1.28 yards per route run
Second eight games -- 23 percent TPRR, 2.34 yards per route run
The splits above also likely have to do with the fact that Evans was playing through injuries early in the 2020 season. Either way, he was Brady's guy in the second half. That was apparent in the red zone too, as Evans saw a massive 35.5 percent TPRR rate from that range in the final eight games of the season.
What makes his second-half splits even more impressive is the fact that Antonio Brown was added to the mix for those games specifically. Brown was heavily involved when on the field, but it did not negatively impact Evans in the way it did Godwin.
2020 TPRR -- 12.5 percent
Ruggs only ran 343 routes as a rookie, which is just below the total (350) that I generally use to qualify when examining TPRR data. So, you could choose to let him off the hook because his rate came on a relatively small sample size.
He also had an absurdly high aDOT (17.4 yards) -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the only player who had a higher aDOT in 2020. It's difficult to demand targets at a high rate when being used in the way Ruggs was in 2020.
I don't believe either of those two factors excuse Ruggs' 12.5 percent TPRR rate, though.
This is nothing new for him. In his three seasons at Alabama, Ruggs' TPRR rate hovered between 17.2 percent and 18.5 percent. That's so low for an NFL prospect! He was below the league average in all three of his seasons at Alabama. And he doesn't have a high aDOT to blame his low TPRR rate on at the college level, either. Ruggs' aDOT was below 12 yards in each of his two final seasons.
If you are drafting Ruggs in Fantasy in 2021, it is a pick made on nothing but blind faith in the Raiders draft investment in him. Nothing from his data profile in his three years at Alabama or his first year in Las Vegas suggests that Ruggs is ever going to be a Fantasy-relevant player.
Among players with at least 300 routes run:
31.5% -- Davante Adams
29.9% -- Alvin Kamara
26.6% -- Darren Waller
26.6% -- J.D. McKissic
26.5% -- Keenan Allen
26.5% -- Diontae Johnson
26.5% -- Stefon Diggs
25.1% -- Mark Andrews
24.9% -- A.J. Brown
24.8% -- Allen Robinson
24.6% -- DeAndre Hopkins
24.4% -- Travis Kelce
24.4% -- Calvin Ridley
24.3% -- Robby Anderson
24.1% -- Jarvis Landry
24.0% -- Jakobi Meyers
23.8% -- Sterling Shepard
23.6% -- Corey Davis
23.6% -- Chase Claypool
23.0% -- Justin Jefferson
23.0% -- Cooper Kupp
22.2% -- Emmanuel Sanders
22.1% -- Tyreek Hill
22.0% -- Mike Davis
22.0% -- DeVante Parker
21.9% -- Cole Beasley
21.7% -- Noah Fant
21.5% -- Brandon Aiyuk
21.5% -- Chase Edmonds
21.4% -- Terry McLaurin
21.4% -- Austin Hooper
21.4% -- Jerry Jeudy
21.3% -- Adam Thielen
21.3% -- Jamison Crowder
21.3% -- Marquise Brown
21.2% -- Tyler Lockett
21.2% -- Tee Higgins
21.1% -- Curtis Samuel
21.1% -- Tyler Boyd
21.1% -- CeeDee Lamb
21.1% -- D.J. Moore
21.1% -- T.Y. Hilton
21.0% -- Jonnu Smith
20.9% -- Russell Gage
20.8% -- T.J. Hockenson
20.7% -- Amari Cooper
20.6% -- Danny Amendola
20.6% -- Chris Conley
20.5% -- Brandin Cooks
20.3% -- Robert Woods
20.1% -- Hunter Renfrow
20.0% -- Evan Engram
19.8% -- Laviska Shenault
19.8% -- Dallas Goedert
19.7% -- Will Fuller
19.7% -- A.J. Green
19.7% -- DK Metcalf
19.5% -- JuJu Smith-Schuster
19.3% -- D.J. Chark
19.3% -- Mike Evans
19.1% -- Chris Godwin
18.9% -- Rob Gronkowski
18.7% -- Zach Ertz
18.7% -- Nelson Agholor
18.7% -- Mike Gesicki
18.4% -- Marvin Jones
18.4% -- Jared Cook
18.4% -- Jimmy Graham
18.3% -- Tyler Higbee
18.2% -- Mecole Hardman 18.1% -- Hunter Henry 18.0% -- James Washington 17.9% -- Darnell Mooney 17.9% -- Eric Ebron 17.8% -- Travis Fulgham 17.6% -- Ezekiel Elliott 17.4% -- Jalen Reagor 17.3% -- N'Keal Harry 17.2% -- Logan Thomas 17.1% -- Darius Slayton 17.1% -- Tim Patrick 16.9% -- Golden Tate 16.9% -- Anthony Miller 16.8% -- Scott Miller 16.7% -- Mike Williams 16.6% -- K.J. Hamler 16.1% -- Hayden Hurst 16.1% -- Kendrick Bourne 16.1% -- David Montgomery 16.1% -- Larry Fitzgerald 16.0% -- Josh Reynolds 15.7% -- Robert Tonyan 15.6% -- Michael Pittman 15.6% -- Greg Ward 15.6% -- Damiere Byrd 15.5% -- Michael Gallup 15.4% -- Dalton Schultz 15.2% -- David Moore 15.1% -- Zach Pascal 15.1% -- Breshad Perriman 15.0% -- Sammy Watkins 14.8% -- Devin Singletary 14.4% -- Christian Kirk 14.4% -- Keelan Cole 14.2% -- Tyler Eifert 13.8% -- David Johnson 13.2% -- Gabriel Davis 12.9% -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling 12.6% -- Drew Sample 12.5% -- Henry Ruggs 12.1% -- Demarcus Robinson 12.0% -- Tre'Quan Smith 11.7% -- Cam Sims 9.0% -- Jalen Guyton 6.4% -- Ian Thomas
