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Advanced Fantasy football metrics that matter: Identify 2021 breakouts with target per route run data

Targets per route run correlated more highly with Fantasy scoring in 2020 than all other opportunity-based metrics. Using that data, Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs identified 10 must-see breakouts for the 2021 season.
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Consider for a moment which stats are most commonly referenced when evaluating a wide receiver's Fantasy outlook.

Some that likely come to mind are tried and true stats such as targets and offensive snap counts. In recent years, Fantasy analysis has become focused on more advanced metrics -- air yards, yards per route run, and red zone targets, to name a few. Focusing on a player's share of his team's total targets or air yards has become more prevalent as well, as the Fantasy and DFS space has become more and more competitive.

The Fantasy football research process has become more efficient over time as the collective space has worked together to weed out the noisy stats and let the cream rise to the top. Generally speaking, today's most commonly referenced stats also are some of the most highly correlated to Fantasy production.

SportsLine's Fantasy analyst Jacob Gibbs believes there are still improvements that can be made to the Fantasy research process, though. Gibbs identified an overlooked advanced metric that has a stronger correlation to Fantasy points than any of the aforementioned staples of Fantasy research. This metric helped Gibbs predict Davante Adams' massive 2020 Fantasy output. Nearly every 2020 Fantasy Draft prep source listed Michael Thomas as the WR1, but those who took Gibbs' advice were well on their way to a Fantasy championship after grabbing Adams at the back end of the first round.

That's not all, though; using this overlooked metric, Gibbs also highlighted 10 players who appear to be on the precipice of a breakout in 2021. He also found five wide receivers whose downward target per route run trajectory indicates that they may be overvalued for Fantasy in 2021.

So which receivers do the target per route run data suggest are ones to avoid in Fantasy drafts? And which players does Gibbs expect a big step forward from with more playing time in 2021? ... Join SportsLine here to see the complete data and which players Gibbs is focused on in 2021 drafts!

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Jacob GibbsDFS Guru