Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 2 Monday probable pitchers, odds, trends: Bettors eye another possible Arizona upset behind Zac Gallen
Arizona looks for a 2-0 lead in the NLDS against the Dodgers.
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It was always going to be tough for the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the 2023 World Series despite yet another 100-win season because of attrition in the starting rotation. Ace Clayton Kershaw couldn't even make it out of the first inning in Game 1 of the NLDS in L.A.'s shocking blowout home loss to Arizona. Now the Dodgers face what's essentially a must-win in Game 2 Monday but will have to contend Arizona ace and Cy Young contender Zac Gallen, and the Diamondbacks are taking a solid upset lean.
At +135 on the money line at BetMGM, Arizona is taking 57% of all tickets and 43% of the money – both high numbers on a ML underdog of that price. On the total of 8.5 runs, 60% of the bets and 51% of the money are on the Over. At +1.5 on the runline, the Diamondbacks are taking only 10% of the money and 23% of the tickets. That's telling you most bettors are on Arizona to win outright.
With the two NL games on tap Monday, the three clubs that won 100 games in the regular season have combined for a 0-4 record in the Division Series: Braves (0-1), Dodgers (0-1) and Orioles (0-2). The road teams are 5-1. Overall in these playoffs, the team to score first is 11-3 and teams that out-homer opponents are 8-1.
Arizona still hasn't played a close game, winning both in the Wild Card round by multiple runs in Milwaukee and then blasting the Dodgers 11-2 in Game 1 thanks to four homers. The Diamondbacks have now homered in 14 consecutive postseason games, tied for the second-longest streak in MLB history. They have won three straight road playoff games following a seven-game road postseason skid.
Gallen could finish as high as second in the 2023 NL Cy Young voting behind San Diego's Blake Snell. Gallen allowed two runs in the first inning of his Wild Card start vs. the Brewers but held Milwaukee there over six strong innings. He has a 1.96 ERA in past three starts overall.
However, he was 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA in two starts vs. the Dodgers this year, both at Dodger Stadium. Gallen is 1-4 with a 3.48 ERA in 11 career starts against Los Angeles, and he's still looking for his first win at Dodger Stadium, where he's 0-4 with a 4.29 ERA over six outings. He is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts and 15.5 outs recorded. He's +280 to win.
Even with the Game 1 loss, the Dodgers are 31-8 vs. Arizona at Dodger Stadium since 2018, playoffs included. Because L.A. is so thinned out in the rotation, rookie Bobby Miller had a huge role this year and will now make his first postseason start. He had a 2.12 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his final three outings in the regular season but a 5.56 ERA in his past eight at home overall. Miller is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts vs. Arizona and is set at O/U 1.5 earned runs, 5.5 strikeouts, and 15.5 outs recorded. He's +190 for a win.
Miller Under 5.5 strikeouts is one of the most-wagered MLB player props on the board. He struck out four in both starts vs. Arizona during the year.
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