Cowboys vs. Titans picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Thursday Night Football

There are some games that upon immediate inspection get flagged as strong live-betting plays.

This Thursday night contest certainly qualifies. One of the more fun things for me this season has been participating in the pre-game and live betting shows we have done on SportsLine through CBS HQ on Sunday afternoon and Monday and Thursday nights. There are some trends and matchups that are best quantified after watching the game unfold for a bit, and there are some obvious areas of discrepancy between teams that have more of a second-half bent, and are thus easier to attack at halftime.

This Cowboys-Titans game is further complicated by the fact that the Titans have very little to gain here, as their season will be determined by the Week 18 showdown with the Jaguars. It sounds like Mike Vrabel is seriously considering holding key players back this week. The Cowboys rarely seem averse to running up the score, but might they too yank vital starters in the second half? It's all murky at best.

However, I will very much be keeping this in mind as I size this game up heading into halftime Thursday night -- the Titans are the lowest-scoring second-half team in the NFL, averaging just 5.6 points per half. Tennessee has a minus-85 scoring differential in the second half, by far worst in the NFL (the next worse team has -56). And, well, wouldn't you know it -- the Cowboys have a +91 scoring differential in the second half, best in the NFL (next best team is +67). This might be worth an in-game play depending on how the first half unfolds.

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Spread: Cowboys -10

I don't love this aspect of this game and I believe there are far smarter ways to attack it. But at a base level, the Cowboys are one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL since the start of last season and the Titans pass defense is totally broken. Tennessee has a raw quarterback in Malik Willis, still barely into his pro career. The Titans have perhaps no real motivation to go all out to try to win or even keep this game close on a short week and with a long rest ahead of them before their season will be decided. The Titans used to dominate the numbers but are 0-4-1 against the spread over their last five games. There's a part of me that thinks Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore -- looking for a head coaching job -- will use this as a showcase to try to hang a 40-burger on a hapless team to bolster his credentials. Feels like a Cowboys thing, eh? The decaying Titans offensive line having to contend with this active Cowboys defensive front with a raw rookie QB under center makes me think Tennessee will turn it over, which could foster a blowout loss.

Total: Over 40

Dallas could approach this number or even exceed it without much help from the Titans. And given the recent form of the Dallas defense and the specter of garbage time, I see Tennessee putting up at least 13 or 14 points. The mitigating factor, again, could be how quickly the Cowboys take their foot off the accelerator and ease back into a comfortable win… but it could be one that lands at something near a 27-10 score line, which obviously doesn't get this home. I'm banking on the Cowboys running this into the 30s (they're averaging 36 points per game since Dak Prescott came back from injury) and the Titans sprinkling in a little along the way. Seven of the last eight Cowboys games have gone Over.

Cowboys Team Total Over 25.5 (-110)

I don't think they call off the dogs -- if they do so at all -- unless they've scored 27 points or more. I see any number of ways for Dallas to get to that total against a defense that was running out of players and stops and has dropped to a bottom-three ranking against the pass. Now key Tennessee veterans might be sitting it out on top of that. There will be ample big plays to be made against this outfit. The Cowboys will get chunk yards and can also control the game (and the scoreboard) on the ground, even if Tony Pollard doesn't suit up.

Same-Game Parlay (+1100)

• Dak Prescott Longest Completion Over 36.5 (-117)
  
• CeeDee Lamb TD
• Dalton Schultz TD

Player Props

(Keep an eye out for Willis rushing props once they populate, I believe he will run it a bunch. I also don't expect Pollard to play, so look for Ezekiel Elliott props once they appear)

CeeDee Lamb Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-119)

Lamb is carving teams up in the slot and the Titans can't defend the slot one bit. He's caught all 18 of his targets the last three weeks for 240 yards and a touchdown. He and Prescott can play catch, and he'll pile on some YAC and get Over this total.

Dak Prescott INT (-117)

I'm going to keep riding this 'til it stops. Prescott's thrown 11 in 10 games and could have tossed even more. He's forcing too many throws. There's been miscommunication with his receivers. It doesn't look like something he can easily shake.

Dak Prescott Longest Completion Over 36.5 (-117)

The Titans have already allowed 12 passing plays of 37 yards or more this season. The Dallas offense can attack them in a multitude of ways, and I could see major YAC opportunities to get us over this mark as well.

Dalton Schultz TD (+190) 

I'm banking on Pollard sitting, which would leave a little more target share for the tight ends in the short and intermediate passing game and red zone opportunities. Schultz is far and away the best of that bunch for Dallas.

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