Bills still odds-on favorites to win Super Bowl 57 despite two-game skid, but Josh Allen's NFL MVP odds continue to lengthen

Despite losing back-to-back games, including blowing a 27-10 third-quarter lead at home vs. Minnesota on Sunday in a 33-30 overtime loss, the Buffalo Bills remain the +380 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook to win Super Bowl 57 – although the Kansas City Chiefs are lurking right behind at +475. Former NFL MVP betting favorite Josh Allen is now a +500 second favorite behind Patrick Mahomes (+140) and tied with Tua Tagovailoa.

Allen played through a right elbow injury on Sunday and threw for 330 yards and a score but had two interceptions (one was truly horrible), his third straight game with two picks. He's up to 10 on the year, the most in the NFL. Allen is +550 to lead the league in picks – pretty sure he won't win MVP if he does that – behind only Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett (+475), who has eight interceptions. Allen has just two passing touchdowns over his last 10 quarters of play.

From 2018 through Week 7 of this season, Allen had thrown 79 touchdown passes with just two picks in the red zone. No active quarterback had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio inside the 20 over that span. However, he has now thrown interceptions inside the red zone in each of his past three games.

With 49 seconds left in regulation Sunday, Allen mishandled a snap from center Mitch Morse that allowed the Vikings to recover the ball in the end zone for a touchdown to go up 30-27 – although Allen would then lead a drive that resulted in the tying field goal. When the Vikings failed on their fourth-and-goal sneak attempt from the 1-yard line with 50 seconds left in regulation, Buffalo had a win expectancy of 99.9%.

The Bills have one glaring issue of late: The offense has not scored a touchdown in the final two quarters or overtime since they rallied to beat the Chiefs in Week 6. Buffalo is just 2-3 in one-score games overall. It also has lost back-to-back games in which it held a double-digit lead for the first time since 2010.

"I think it's worth a deeper dive again this week," coach Sean McDermott said on the Bills' second-half issues. "We look at it and study it and we haven't scored touchdowns in the second half, so we've gotta go back and look at what's been different the second half and what's been different compared to the first half."

Were the playoffs to start today, the Bills would be a wild-card team as the AFC's sixth seed. They are tied for second in the AFC East, a half-game behind the surging Miami Dolphins, who hold the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a 21-19 home win over the Bills in Week 3. They play again in Buffalo in Week 15. This Sunday, Buffalo hosts Cleveland and is a 9.5-point favorite.

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