Expert Picks
This is a game that everyone and their mother is screaming is going to be a low scoring draw. The idea that both teams are going to be so petrified of making a mistake and conceding early is fueling the under 2.5 goal market with the under being heavily juiced. I completely understand that argument and feel as though it's valid, but it's not how I view this match. Both teams have been horrendous defensively over the knockout rounds. While there will be a fear to press, I believe that both teams will be able to unlock each others defensive, and find goals. I love BTTS, but I like the over 2.5!
This match feels like one where we’ll be reaching for an energy drink by halftime. Argentina scored early against Switzerland and completely drained the life out of that match. England weren’t much better, generating less than 0.5 expected goals over 90 minutes. Both teams are stronger defensively than the market gives them credit for, and neither side is likely to take unnecessary risks. This has all the makings of a tight, tactical battle that finishes 1-1. If either team trails late, they’ll do everything possible to force extra time. The draw is the only way I can play this match.
England are unbeaten in 14 competitive games since Thomas Tuchel replaced Gareth Southgate as manager. The Three Lions haven't been at their best in recent weeks, but they keep finding a way to grind out results. The same is true of Argentina, but La Albiceleste's performances have been far more concerning. They needed a 111th minute own goal to beat Cape Verde, and they were lucky to secure a 3-2 comeback win against Egypt in the Round of 16. Argentina also needed extra time to beat 10-man Switzerland on Saturday, and they could struggle to deal with England's pace and physicality in this game.
This should be an entertaining game between two teams that are stacked with elite attackers. Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race after scoring eight goals in six games, while Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez form a strong supporting cast. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have both scored six goals for England at this tournament, and they could overpower Argentina's Lisandro Martínez in this game. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in five of Argentina's six games at this tournament, as they're dangerous in attack and dreadful in defense. England also struggle to keep clean sheets, so +135 on over 2.5 goals looks great.
I really don't like accusing any leagues or refs or anything of favoritism, but the longer this World Cup goes the more we are seeing some... questionable calls always in the favor of Messi and his crew. We've seen missed calls, forced calls, and just calls with no reasoning. England have yet to play a convincing 90 minutes for me, and Messi and his crew seem to be unstoppable at the moment on the offense. I expect this game to have goals, but I expect us to see a repeat of the France v Argentina final.