We are only 3 games in but the Broncos have already established a pattern of sleeping through the first half and waking up later. They didnt wake up at all vs. KC but scored 14 points in the 4th quarter of both of their wins, and that was after scoring 16 in the 3rd vs. LA, helped by a Pick 6. If they fall asleep again on the road in Santa Clara, it's game over. San Francisco has played better an anyone, scoring a TD on 13 of 27 drives this season (48.1%), the highest rate through three games since 2000. They are only team that can claim they are top 5 in scoring offense and defense and will take care of the inconsistent Broncos.

Aaron Glenn’s Jets defense is second in total yards (258.3), third against the pass (171.0), and seventh against the run (87.3). Before facing the Lions juggernaut, Jets held both the Packers and Titans to under 200 yards and 10 and 20 points. Chicago's offense is likely somewhere in between, and one Aaron Glenn was around when he was with Ben Johnson in Detroit. After 59 points and 552 yards at 7.9 per play, Bears have combined for 30 points, averaged 336 yards per game and 4.8 per play They've proven they are QB proof with Case Keenum, but they won't be as explosive and the running game only gained 3.7 yards per rush on Monday Night with 50% of the yards on last drive.

If you took the under on the opposing RB vs. the Jaguars, you are 3-0 this season. We have an will continue to do that with Chase Brown. The Jags are currently 8th against the run (91.3), but first if you go back to the beginning of last year (86.5 per game). The yards per attempt is actually lower at 3.6 than last year's 3.9 Brown has gone for 56, 80, and 61 this year, so he has missed 66.5 in two of the three game and rushed for 47 yards in this matcjup last year on 16 rushes.

This is just a mismatch of statistical profiles. UTSA is averaging 37.8 points and 460.8 yards per game, while Rice is allowing 30.3 points and 426.5 yards. UTSA also just put up 59 points and 638 yards against Colorado State. The Roadrunners have +0.22 EPA/play — 35th nationally, with the Rice defense: +0.17 EPA/play allowed — 112th nationally. There's also a Rice offensive problem that helps when laying double digits. Rice is scoring only 19.0 PPG (126th) and averaging 5.0 yards/play. The Owls have scored 20 or fewer in three of four games. Last year, UTSA won this 61-13.

South Carolina’s statistical profile is a picture-perfect example of misleading statistics. The out-of-conference wins over Kent State and FCS Towson by a combined 102-9 overshadow a 0-2 SEC start that includes blowing a 16-0 lead at home vs. Mississippi State and getting blown out by Alabama. After an early 16-0 lead over Mississippi State two weeks ago, South Carolina has been outscored 80-36 in 6.5 quarters since. They rank 15th of 16 SEC teams in defensive EPA/play allowed in conference play. Kentucky, behind C.J. Baxter and Jason Patterson in the backfield, has a 52.0% rushing success rate and is 30th in the nation at 203.5 rush yards per game. Outside of a disastrous second half against Alabama, the Wildcats have played great an upset A&M.

New Mexico has been a pleasant surprise this year, losing 14-6 to Oklahoma on the road and beating other three opponents 150-32. The Lobos are 8th in scoring defense, 15th in total defense, and 15th in rush defense. They held Oklahoma to 14, the same OU team that beat UTEP 51-0 if you are comparing. But what I really like about this defense is that they rank 2nd in producing Havoc. They lead the nation in turnover margin +14, with the most Interceptions in the country (9) and forcing the 3rd-most forced fumbles. UTEP's awful offense also plays into this pick. They are dead last (138th) in EPA/play, 124th in success rate, 137th in plays/game, 133rd in total yards (265.3) and 127th in scoring (18.8).

Florida's offense continues to put up numbers with 44+ points in all four games this season and 50+ in three of four. They are 2nd in nation in score (53.8), 5th in yards (532.8) and have the leading RB in Jadan Baugh. We've also seen the defense give up 39 to Auburn and 28 to Ole Miss and 21 to FAU. Missouri is 126th nationally in explosiveness allowed, which means they won't be able to stop Florida. allowed 514 yards, including 360 in the air, and 6.44 yards per play to Mississippi State last week, all season highs.

One of the bigger surprises of the season is QB Kamario Taylor and the Mississippi Bulldogs, who continue to pile up points and are 4-0. Taylor is 6th in the country in passing efficiency. The passing game is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt and is 13th in the country at 315.5 passing yards per game. Overall, Miss State is 4th in the nation, piling up 533.2 per game and 15th in scoring at 43.0 per game. Alabama is right there with the Bulldogs as one of the top offenses in the country, fourth in points (48.0, with 45+ in each game) and 24th in yards. Keelon Russell is leading the way, 19th in passing yards at 282.25 per game.

The Eagles have shown me nothing through 2 weeks on offense with 318 and 341 yards against the Commanders and Titans. And inside those numbers, 79 yards and 65 yards were their last drives of of each game, when they needed to score. The first 3.5 quarters were awful. Remove those two drives, and the Eagles produced 34 points on 17 possessions, while losing 12.2 expected points on their 106 rushes/dropbacks. As for those record setting Bears, well the drop off from 59 points to 3 points was stark. Less than 300 yards.. 4.2 yards per play, a far cry from 7.7 in Week 1. Chicago’s running game produced −9.3 EPA. Caleb Williams status up in the air and shouldn't be scared of Tyson Bagent.

Dallas allowed Jaxson Dart 54 yards and Jayden Daniels 69 in one half before he got injured. The Cowboys have allowed an NFL-high 126 rushing yards to QBs on 19 carries (6.6 YPC). Lamar Jackson is averaging 6.7 yards per rush, taking off 7 times for 40 yards and a TD vs. Indy and 4 times for 34 yards vs. New Orleans. Lamar hit 35+ yards rushing in three of his first four games last season before he got injured. Jackson has also rushed for 181 yards in two career games against Dallas, topping 85 yards in both.

Ashton Jeanty has had one great game (102 yards) vs Dolphins and a quiet game against the Chargers (48). Jeanty has played 77.2% of the Raiders' offensive snaps through two games while accounting for 79% of the backfield carries and an 83.8% opportunity share. The Saints have allowed Jahmyr Gibbs to rush for 156 and 2 TD, and Derrick Henry had 68 and a TD last week. They rank 27th in EPA allowed per rush and 26th allowing 136.5 rush yards per game.

Tampa Bay loves to blitz, with the 3rd-highest blitz% at 40.3%. Kyler Murray cleared this rushing line in all 5 games he played in and had 9 yards on 2 carries in his first game on one drive before getting hurt Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson went for 20 and 22 rush yards against the Bucs in first two games.

Even though Houston is 0-2, they've had a decent passing attack with a non-existent run game. Stroud went for 275 and 353 yards in his two games this season. And the 353 was without WR1 Nico Collins, who is out again this week. The Colts defense has been the worst in the league through 2 weeks. They are last in scoring defense (37.0 PPG), last in total defense (514.5 YPG), 31st in rush defense (177.0) and last in pass defense (337.5). Lamar Jackson threw for 324 in Week 1 and Patrick Mahomes 382 and 3 last week. Keep in mind Mahomes and the Chiefs did nothing passing-wise vs. Denver in Week 1.

The Jaguars are the better team here. Dominated the first half and had the Broncos dead, but missing a FG and then letting Denver right back in the game. Meanwhile, yes, the Patriots defense looked good in shutting down Pittsburgh. But what does that mean. A Pittsburgh team that struggled to get by a really bad Atlanta team the week before. I am just not sold yet that New England can beat anyone good. Cause they really haven't. They didn't last year, even with a Super Bowl run, not facing a top 10 defense in reg season and struggled in all 3 postseason wins. The Pats scored on a scoop 6 and a TreVeyon Henderson house call, while Drake Maye was awful again.

The Jaguars had the top rush defense in the NFL last year, holding teams to 85.6 yards per game. Week 1, Judkins only had 33 yards and last week Dobbins was also under 40. We are 2-0 in this prop. I faded RBs on a weekly basis against them last year and was profitable. TreVeyon Henderson had a 76-yard game vs. the Steelers last week, which 39 came on one run. He was 15 for 37 on the rest of the carries.