

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Matt's Picks
1 Live PicksSeattle plays its home opener. ...
This is in the same boat as my earlier Lightning play. Minnesota is sitting home Friday waiting, while Boston is playing a tough game tonight in Winnipeg and then has to obviously travel -- hey, maybe customs is tricky now with Canada -- for the Wild's home opener. The Bruins are playing No. 1 Jeremy Swayman vs. the Jets, so that means inexperienced No. 2 Michael DiPietro in net Saturday. The 27-year-old has two career NHL starts and not since 2021-22 with Vancouver. He lost both with 10 goals allowed. This would be a spot where my old -1 would have been so appreciated. So not having that, I'll just up the ante on this wager with every edge pointing toward the Wild.
The NHL is one league where I like to play lookahead lines, and this is the scenario where it's perfect to me. Washington is playing tonight at Carolina and using No. 1 goalie Logan Thompson. Nothing good can happen for the Caps against the Hurricanes in terms of then playing 24 hours later in Tampa. Backup Charlie Lindgren already is confirmed and he was decidedly not good last season (3.52 GAA). The Lightning and future HOF goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy were embarrassed in their season opener at the Rangers, so I expect a very focused effort in the home opener Saturday.
The defending Stanley Cup champions look to avoid a 0-2 start, with both at home, for some early urgency before flying out to play in Philly on Saturday. On the bright side, the Carolina penalty kill went 7-for-7 in that 1-0 opening loss to Florida. Go 7-for-7 on the PK and allow a single goal tonight, and I'll certainly take my chances. Alex Ovechkin opens presumably his final season with the Caps off an injury that affected him in the preseason. Front end of a B2B for Washington as well. Logan Thompson is in net tonight, and his road splits weren't nearly as good as home last season.
I don't think that much of Detroit, especially without Dylan Larkin, but it's the home opener in Hockeytown (not sure that moniker applies any longer) and the Rangers already playing the second of a B2B. Veteran backup goalie Joonas Korpisalo is injured so it's rookie Dylan Garand in net tonight presumably for NYR. He was very good last year but only three starts and when the Blueshirts were long eliminated. John Gibson we pretty much know will be solid but not amazing for the Wings.
The Panthers are stacked, and I won't be fading them often. But they also just had the high of ruining Banner Night in Raleigh in the overall season opener Tuesday. San Jose is a big-time rising team playing its opener (has had days to prepare for Florida however much that matters in hockey I'm not sure) and was one of the most profitable ATS teams in the NHL last season. With Macklin Celebrini & Co. flying around, that place will definitely be the Shark Tank this year for visitors. Will they get the goaltending is the question. This could be easily be a 5-4 type matchup. I don't see many scenarios where I play an Under all season on a San Jose game.
Looks like the Oilers are who they always are: Great offense and can't stop a soul. Kinda got burned by them the other day when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was ruled out after I made a play. He remains so and Zach Hyman is out tonight, too. Those are the team's two most important forwards after Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Edmonton has a handful of other guys on IR. Really thin right now, so yep have to do this now at this price. Vancouver won't be lacking confidence off Tuesday's upset win and all teams come out flying in home openers. The Canucks are 7-2-1 in their last 10 home openers. Just get to OT ...
The Blackhawks probably won't be a great offensive team even when Connor Bedard is back from shoulder surgery but certainly won't be without him. They managed two goals in the season-opening loss in Vegas, and two here I think would cash this. It's the season opener for the Mammoth, who were a decent but not great offensive team last season when all four games vs. Chicago finished with five or fewer total goals scored -- and two went to OT. Utah goalie Karel Vejmelka comes off a career year.
Trying to expand my horizons a bit this NHL season, and yep that includes playing some Overs even though still am moderately allergic. But pretty much any Avalanche game at 5.5 has to be looked to the Over with their offense, and some of our books are at 6.5 so this may flip tomorrow. The Kings added a fair amount of offense at last year's trade deadline (Artemi Panarin) and in the offseason (few guys). If they score 3, this is going Over almost surely. The model has 6.7 goals.
Will do a fair amount of lookahead wagers on NHL this season because it's the only time I can see some alts. DraftKings is our lone book with 6.5 here but know from past seasons that likely flips at some point back to 5.5. The Penguins are without their third-leading scorer from last year in Bryan Rust (65 points) due to injury. Philly was a meh offensive team (2.93 GPG) but goalie Dan Vladar had a career season with a 2.42 GAA (2.39 at home). The clubs played 10 times last season including playoffs and seven stayed Under 6.5. The model has 6.1 goals and like most 6.5 plays, this likely comes down to which side scores when it's 3-2 (i.e. 3-3 to OT).
Good first night of NHL action Tuesday for the most part. There are a few reasons why I like Islanders star blueliner Matthew Schaefer for at least a point tonight. For one thing, the reigning Calder Trophy winner is a future Norris Trophy winner superstar. He was second on the squad last year with 59 points and always on the ice. Second, Schaefer is from Hamilton -- down the road from Toronto, so I'm sure all the family and friends will be in attendance. Third, it's the 2025 No. 1 overall pick's first NHL meeting against the 2026 No. 1 overall pick in Leafs forward Gavin McKenna. Big parts of the NHL future on display tonight in T-dot.
So here is the deal regarding NHL 2026-27. Most books don't offer -1. They prefer Tie No Bet. Which I would love that. And I will tell you when I think that's the play because we don't have it yet. I am going to alter my strategy a little to start. I can get the Bruins around -130 on the ML and yes I do think they win. So why not take +132 for the possible empty-netter? Now that I am knee-deep in soccer, I have learned to accept draws and kinda realize the pricing model is beneficial to take one.
Florida trounced visiting Carolina on Sunday and it doesn't appear the Hurricanes care a heck of a lot about exhibition hockey in terms of playing key guys -- there are some unique rules this year in how many veterans must play on a given night with teams playing four games thanks to the added two in the regular season. But this is the Canes' only true home game of the slate and Brandon Bussi, who was so good last season as a rookie, gets the start in net.
This is a special occasion Kraft Hockeyville game in Trois-Rivieres, Quebec, so the "home" Canadiens are pretty much going with their A team. Montreal is 2-0 in the preseason, winning a pair of split-squad games vs. Toronto. It's the opener for Ottawa, which has a few guys out due to injury/birth of a child. The Sens are expected to take a major step back this season after trading away Brady Tkachuk to Florida.
Very fair price on Carolina's Nikolaj Ehlers considering he has back-to-back three-point games -- although I will say potential elimination games tend to be lower-scoring. I'm a bit surprised that Vegas coach John Tortorella is sticking with struggling Carter Hart in net, but Torts is known to be quite stubborn. Unfortunately, I don't see any sides or totals in our system that I like much as I'd prefer to play something on one in perhaps the last hockey until October. If this were Monday, I'd probably do the same parlay I did for Game 5 at CBS Sports betting site: Knights +2.5 and Carolina Over 2.5 goals -- that's priced +109 at BetRivers. Hoping for a Game 7 ...


