Matt's Past Picks
You'd think the Blue Jackets players would be pretty gassed after a wild back-and-forth 7-6 overtime loss at Florida on Saturday and then obviously traveling. The team has lost five of seven overall. Washington, with the East's best goal differential, has been off since Friday and won six of seven. Goalie Logan Thompson has been lights out all season and is 2-0 against Columbus with just two total goals allowed on 58 shots.
Wasn't on my dance card but Evgeni Malkin is out for the Pens. He's not a Top 10 NHL player these days but certainly still a difference-maker. Good injury news for the Stars with forward Matt Duchene and blueliner Nils Lundkvist activated off IR. Stars goalie Jake Oettinger has allowed a single goal on 48 shots in two starts this month and not lost since Nov. 18. Dallas has won four of the past five in the series.
A goalie-mostly play here as the Jets will be starting 22-year-old rookie Thomas Milic, who has a 3.65 GAA in two NHL appearances. He has not seen an offense like Edmonton's yet with Connor McDavid & Co. Winnipeg is 2-4 since Connor Hellebuyck went down injured. And maybe the inconsistent Oilers finally found their mojo Thursday by scoring nine in a rout of Seattle. "I feel like we haven't really had that all year, so it feels good to get a couple as a group," McDavid said post-game (he had a hat trick). "Hopefully, guys are feeling good about themselves and can build on it."
I haven't done a total in a while. I was ready to smash Lightning -1 if Andrei Vasilevskiy was in net after sitting Thursday, but he's out again. So why would I then do an Under with kinda iffy backup Jonas Johansson? Because Nikita Kucherov is out too. And that's obviously significant offensively. The Isles have a few key guys out as well (was part of my -1 plan). Goalie Ilya Sorokin, always one of my favorites, has been better away with a 2.39 GAA. Half-unit simply as totals often perplex me but short of 3-3 to OT I feel decent about it.
At this price, have to. May not get Rangers +1.5 cheaper the rest of the season (already played in Denver). We won fading the Avs at the other New York team on Thursday as they were routed at the Islanders. At some point, the Avalanche had to come back to earth. The Blueshirts' Igor Shesterkin has allowed three goals or fewer in six straight starts, going 5-1-0 over that stretch with a 2.18 GAA and .922 save percentage.
Devils as home dogs, that we will not see often so really an auto-play. Pricy but, again, I am literally 0-174 in overtime or extra innings (I swear that number does not feel wrong). I am like the DiMaggio of awful. So it's worth it to me to take the +1 and just avoid late pain. Seriously, when I play +1 in an NHL game, I don't even watch OT or the shootout because I know for a fact what will happen. Perhaps life surprises me here.
The books are still hugely overpricing the Oilers simply because of who they were the past few seasons and not really who they are this year. They should not be around -240 for this one is my point, but hey as long as we get -1 -- although it's nearing the limit of where we would. But the did win 4-0 in Seattle on Dec. 2 and the Kraken aren't healthy with Mason Marchment (11 points) out and top blueliner Brandon Montour (13 points) in doubt. They have lost three straight and totaled only two goals.
Colorado is on pace to be one of the great regular-season teams in history. But No. 1 netminder Scott Wedgewood probably is out again Friday due to injury. Mackenzie Blackwood has been just as good, though -- maybe NHL teams just need to get guys with the last name Wood, which by the way is my family name (just not me). But this is Bullseye Central against a pretty good Islanders team. And -143 for +1.5 compared to -200 on Avs away for Colorado's first game on the East Coast since late-October? (Granted, I could just skip it) No-brainer play even it if loses.
Do I even need to explain this on San Jose for Wednesday? Again, I'm not being offered +1 and that's surely fine -- but if you don't mind paying a little extra, this team just doesn't lose by more than a goal at home. Now 14-2 ATS on home ice after Monday's win over Utah. The Caps will be in the second of a B2B after facing the Kings on Tuesday. No. 1 netminder Logan Thompson is starting there so that should mean No. 2 Charlie Lindgren (4-3-1, 3.12 GAA) on Wednesday.
Half unit simply as moneylines have been perplexing me, but the Stars are in the second of a back-to-back and just got horrible news that Tyler Seguin is done for the year with a torn ACL. That has to resonate in the locker room. A few other key guys are still out injured as well. As of last Friday, the Devils hadn't lost in regulation at home. Now they have back-to-back home losses in reg. Just seems a bit of an urgency spot in a potential Stanley Cup Finals preview.
Always very tough to sweep a home-and-home in the NHL, with Boston beating visiting Detroit 3-2 in a shootout on Saturday. The Wings outshot and B's and won the faceoff circle. Bruins superstar David Pastrnak missed that and won't play Tuesday, either. We may get B's lesser goalie Joonas Korpisalo after it was Jeremy Swayman on Saturday but I'm fine either way (prefer JK). Boston is under .500 away. The Wings need a little momentum on a four-game skid and with a crazy-tough road trip up next. They need to get the power play going after having five chances on Saturday, including one for a full two minutes in overtime, and couldn't score.
Sharks ATS at home has been the NHL's best bet this season at 13-2. I am not being offered +1 or likely would play that, but this is reasonable all things considered to guarantee a cash simply with a San Jose point. Utah has lost three straight and plays in a third different city in four nights. The Mammoth are likely to be without their best offensive player and leading scorer Logan Cooley (14G, 9A) as he left Saturday's defeat in St. Louis injured.
Columbus is a bit thin at forward down star Kirill Marchenko (8G, 14A) and Mathieu Oliver (3G, 6A), while netminder Elvis Merzlikins was 0-4 in four November starts with a 4.30 GAA. The Jackets have a single win in their past six. Nico Hischier has a 5-game point streak (5G 5A) for New Jersey, which is 9-1-1 at home. It's backup Jake Allen in net, but he's 5-0-0 at home with a 1.76 GAA.
Anaheim is the better team but playing away for the first time since Nov. 15. It has dropped three in a row on the road. This is mostly a fade of goalie and former Blackhawks Petr Mrazek, who has a 3.69 overall GAA and 3.72 away. Chicago's Spencer Knight (2.48 GAA) is the better player no doubt. The Blackhawks defeated the Ducks in overtime, 2-1, on Oct. 19 at the United Center and are 8-1-1 in the past 10 at home in the series. Knight made 38 saves in that last meeting.
This absolutely did not work the other night in Denver, but the NHL math tells us it's gonna work more than 85% of the time. The Sharks are definitely not the away cash cow that they are at home, but this is still a rather ridiculously good price at this number. It's the right play, even with a loss. Sometimes those don't always pair up.
