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Sun, Dec 016:00 pm UTCGillette Stadium
30 F
Track OnCBS Sports
Indianapolis
Colts
IND
Last 5 ATS
W/L6-7
ATS8-5
O/U6-7-0
FINAL SCORE
25
-
24
New England
Patriots
NE
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-10
ATS5-7
O/U8-5-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
6-7
Win /Loss
3-10
8-5
Spread
5-7
6-7-0
Over / Under
8-5-0
Key Injuries
Key Injuries
Avatar
OT
Avatar
WR
Avatar
WR
Key Injuries
Avatar
DT
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
IND @ NE
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
IND @ NE
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OVER / UNDER
IND @ NE
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

66%
PUBLIC
34%
MONEY
74%
PUBLIC
26%
MONEY
Over66%
PUBLIC
Under34%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Avatar
Total Receiving YardsMichael Pittman Over 50.5 Total Receiving Yards -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1469.5
39-24 in Last 63 NFL Player Props Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

Michael Pittman went for 6 catches & 96 receiving yards last week against the Lions, and is likely to be featured again this week with Josh Downs sidelined. Colts QB Anthony Richardson threw for an ugly 11/28 last week, with more than half of his completions going to Pittman. The Patriots were chewed up by Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle last week for 8/144/1TD, whose play style profiles similarly to Pittman. Richardson will have few other targets to look for.

Pick Made: Dec 01, 5:20 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadIndianapolis -2.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1482
52-34-4 in Last 90 NFL Picks
+1382
51-34-4 in Last 89 NFL ATS Picks
+1077
24-12-2 in Last 38 NE ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

The Colts have been an iffy proposition this season no matter who starts at QB, and Anthony Richardson took a step backwards last week without Josh Downs, who will again be missing here. The Patriots are not the Lions, though, and while Drake Maye impresses in spurts, he doesn’t put it together for 60 minutes. AR and Jonathan Taylor should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up the passing game a bit. The real reason for this pick, though, is the Indianapolis defense, which is simply superior to what New England offers. With advantages in the areas that control the clock, let’s back AR and the Colts as rare road favorites.

Pick Made: Dec 01, 5:14 pm UTC on Caesars
Point SpreadIndianapolis -2.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1675
40-21-3 in Last 64 NFL ATS Picks
+298
25-20-1 in Last 46 NE ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

Rookie Drake Maye is an upgrade at QB for New England, but the team is nonetheless 2-5 straight-up with him starting. The Pats still rank dead-last in yards per game. Though Indy has gotten pounded by superior opponents, it has beaten four out of five foes with sub-.500 records. Let's compare ATS marks: the Colts are 8-4, the Pats 4-7-1. A 2.5-point spread against a weak foe can be a temptress, but any spot less than a field goal with the Pats involved is irresistible.

Pick Made: Dec 01, 4:57 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadIndianapolis -2.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1521
35-18 in Last 53 NFL Picks
+1421
34-18 in Last 52 NFL ATS Picks
+1234
19-6 in Last 25 NE ATS Picks
Emory's Analysis:

Interestingly enough, the Colts have a chance to run the table the rest of the way. Their last 'tough' game was last week vs Detroit. With the potential of the postseason within their grasp, look for their run game and physical defense to travel well with them to New England.

Pick Made: Dec 01, 4:17 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadIndianapolis -2.5 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1278
41-25-1 in Last 67 NFL Picks
+1259
37-22-1 in Last 60 NFL ATS Picks
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NE ATS Picks
Micah's Analysis:

The Colts have lost four of the last five but it's who they lost to that matters as much as the losses. They lost to a who's who of NFL teams that are high-level playoff teams like the Lions, the Bills, the Vikings, and the Texans. It’s a legitimate excuse for the Colts. With the bad teams they played, they've done extremely well and covered. They're 5-7 on the season but 8-4 against the spread. The Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL at only 280 yards per game and are -7 in turnover margin. Colts take care of business against a lesser team. Colts cover.

Pick Made: Nov 30, 10:56 pm UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total CarriesRhamondre Stevenson Over 13.5 Total Carries -130
WIN
Unit1.0
+278.5
27-21 in Last 48 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

In the five games Stevenson has 20 or more carries in this year, the Patriots have either won or lost by one score. In the six games he has 13 or fewer carries, the Patriots lost every time including two blowouts. I do think they can hang with the Colts, giving Stevenson the gamescript to have a lot of rushes. It especially helps that nine different running backs have 14 or more rush attempts against the Colts this year, including one in each of their past seven games.

Pick Made: Nov 29, 5:54 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total CarriesAnthony Richardson Over 9.5 Total Carries -125
LOSS
Unit1.0
+70
3-2 in Last 5 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

He's hit double digit in carries in 3 of the last 4 games and this is a must-win game on the road for a desperate Colts team. If they are going to hang around the playoffs, they need to win, and the most explosive thing about their team is this kid running the ball. Patriots are not special against the run and Jonathan Taylor has been mundane lately and short yardage and option ball and scrambles and maybe a kneel down or two as well get us to 12 or more, I project. He has 40 rushes over the past 4 weeks.

Pick Made: Nov 28, 8:01 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Made Field GoalsMatt Gay Over 1.5 Total Made Field Goals -133
LOSS
Unit1.0
+277
14-10 in Last 24 NFL Player Props Picks
Eric's Analysis:

For nine straight weeks, Matt Gay has made two or more field goals. Why would we stray from the trend this week? Meanwhile, New England has given up multiple field goal attempts in 8 of 12 games this season. Until it misses, I'll continue to ride this pick each week.

Pick Made: Nov 27, 9:07 pm UTC on BetMGM
1st Half Spread1st Half Indianapolis -1.5 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+102
2-1 in Last 3 NFL Game Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Pats are horrible covering at home (2-10-2 since the start of '23) and the Colts excel on road (9-5 ATS in that span). But I'm going to cut the game in half. NE can't start games quickly. They have trailed by 3 points or more at the half in 8 of their last 9 home games; their -57 first half PD at home since start of last season is 31st in the NFL. Colts have led at the half by 6+ in their last two road games with Anthony Richardson back at QB. Colts have a very solid defense and have faced a tough gauntlet of teams. I like them to carry a lead to the half.

Pick Made: Nov 27, 4:19 am UTC on Sugar House
Point SpreadNew England +3 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+893
27-16-1 in Last 44 NFL ATS Picks
+1013
49-35-2 in Last 86 IND ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Patriots were embarrassed by the Dolphins on Sunday, falling behind 31-0, but that Miami team is in a much better spot than this Indy team. Anthony Richardson turned back into a pumpkin after one good week, and the offense sustained several WR injuries, with key weapon Josh Downs looking unlikely for this game. The Colts have been managing OL injuries as well and now Richardson might be taking snaps from a third-string center. With New England relatively healthy and hosting a struggling indoor team in cold conditions, they shouldn't be catching the full 3 anywhere.

Pick Made: Nov 26, 2:20 pm UTC on DraftKings

Team Injuries

Indianapolis Colts
Monday, Dec 02, 2024
Avatar
OT
Braden Smith
PersonalQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Ashton Dulin
AnkleQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Josh Downs
ShoulderQuestionable
Avatar
C
Tanor Bortolini
ConcussionQuestionable
New England Patriots
Monday, Dec 02, 2024
Avatar
DT
Jaquelin Roy
NeckQuestionable
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