Tre Jones continues to start for the Bulls down the stretch. Over the last 14 games, he has averaged 16.8 points and 5.1 assists. With regards to this prop, he combined for at least 19 points and assists in 11 of those games. That includes reaching that threshold in difficult matchups against the Thunder, Rockets, Clippers and Suns. When these teams played each other in November, Jones finished with 20 points and seven assists. This line has been set too low, so give me the over.
The Spurs have a great matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. Along the way, they have given up the third-most assists per game. Stephon Castle already comes into this matchup playing well, averaging 18.7 points and 8.4 assists over his last nine games. Another stat I like is that he is shooting 50.2% from the field at home, versus 44.6% on the road. It’s going to be difficult for the Bulls to slow him down.
After missing 10 straight games with a finger injury, Tyrese Maxey returned Saturday against the Hornets. He wasn’t eased back into action, logging 43 minutes. He scored 26 points, which is impressive because the Hornets have the sixth-best defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Over their last 10 games, the Heat rank 23rd in defensive rating. The Heat have also played at the fastest pace in the league for the season. In two previous games against them, Maxey scored 27 and 28 points. This is an important game for both teams for playoff seeding, so I think Maxey plays a ton and hits this over.
Nikola Jokic averaged 13.3 assists over his last 11 games. He dished out at least 11 assists in nine of those 11 games. The Nuggets are finally healthy, so with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson back in the fold, Jokic has a lot of excellent finishers around him. The Warriors rank 19th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games, so I like Jokic’s chances of hitting this over.
The Rockets recently benched Tari Eason, moving Reed Sheppard into the starting lineup. Over the last five games since that move was made, Sheppard combined for at least eight rebounds and assists each time. During the stretch, he averaged 4.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists. The last time he faced the Pelicans, he had five rebounds and three assists off the bench. Look for him to be productive in both departments again.
In a difficult matchup versus the Thunder on Friday, Josh Giddey emerged with seven rebounds and 11 assists. He has been excelling in both departments, averaging 9.3 rebounds and 11.8 assists over his last 12 games. That included a battle with the Grizzlies in which he recorded 15 rebounds and 13 assists. The Grizzlies give up the fifth-most rebounds per game and the ninth-most assists per game in the league, so look for Giddey to also shine in their rematch.
Daniss Jenkins has started five straight games with Cade Cunningham (chest) out. After scorning nine points on 3-for-16 shooting the first game, he has scored at least 19 points in four straight. During that five-game stretch, he averaged 38 minutes,14.2 shot attempts and 4.4 free throw attempts per game. The Timberwolves will be without three of their best perimeter defenders in Anthony Edwards (knee), Jaden McDaniels (knee) and Ayo Dosunmu (calf), which puts Jenkins in a favorable position to hit this over.
Jared McCain only scored six points over 13 minutes against the Celtics on Wednesday. It was a close game, so the Thunder gave more minutes to their starters. This has the potential to be a blowout against the Bulls, who allowed 157 points in a 20-point loss to the 76ers on Wednesday. The Thunder recently blew out two bad teams in the Wizards and Nets. McCain played 28 minutes in each game, scoring 26 and 18 points. I think he plays around 20 minutes against the Bulls, leaving him with a great opportunity to hit this over.
Darius Garland has scored at least 19 points in seven of his last nine games. During that span, he averaged 23.1 points in 29 minutes per game. The last time he faced the Pacers, he was still on a minute restriction in his return from injury. He only played 24 minutes, but still scored 12 points. The Pacers might be able to keep this game somewhat close with Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard expected to play. That means Garland could log around 30 minutes against a team that has the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. Take this over.
The Magic continue to play without Franz Wagner (ankle) and Anthony Black (abdomen). Tristan da Silva has started each of the last 10 games without them, averaging 14.0 points and 31 minutes a night. Five of those games came at home and he scored at least 12 points in each of them. In three of those home games, he topped 20 points. The Kings have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, so with plenty of minutes coming his way, I like da Silva to continue his hot scoring stretch.
Peyton Watson scored 14 points over 20 minutes against the Trail Blazers on Friday in his return from injury. The Nuggets sat him Tuesday against the Suns because they didn’t want him to play in both halves of their back-to-back set. I think Aaron Gordon will sit for rest Wednesday. He also has not played consecutive days since returning from an injury of his own. Watson could play around 25 minutes against a Mavericks team that has the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Watson averages 14.9 points per game for the season, so I’ll bite on this discount and take the over.
Josh Giddey has averaged 36 minutes over his last 10 games. That helped him average 9.5 rebounds and 11.9 assists a night. In eight of those games, he finished with at least 19 combined rebounds and assists. One time that he didn’t, he just missed with 18 combined in a terrible matchup against the Thunder. The 76ers aren’t as troublesome because they rank 15th in rebounds allowed per game and 24th in assists allowed per game over their last 10 games. In two previous games against them, Giddey had 17 and 27 combined rebounds and assists. I think he shines again.
Jalen Smith played 26 minutes and hit three three-pointers against the Rockets on Monday. After battling a calf injury, he has played at least 26 minutes in four of his last five games. The one time he didn’t, he logged just 17 minutes in a lopsided loss to the Raptors. With him playing more, he made at least two three-pointers in four of those five games. The 76ers have allowed the eighth-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league over their last 10 games and Smith shoots 40.0% from deep on the road for the season. After making at least two threes in both of his first two meetings with the 76ers, I think he reaches this over Wednesday.
Since returning from injury, Devin Booker has averaged 28.5 points over his last 12 games. That included him scoring at least 30 points in four of his last seven games. As the Suns continue to play without Dillon Brooks (hand), Booker averaged 21.3 shot attempts and 8.0 free throw attempts over those 12 games. The Nuggets have the 10th-worst defensive rating in the league, which makes this over even more appealing for Booker.
When Dejounte Murray first returned from injury, he was on a minute restriction. However, he has played at least 30 minutes in five of his last six games. Over those six games, he averaged 20.8 points, 14.2 shot attempts and 4.0 free throw attempts. He shoots 34.0% from behind the arc for the season, which could be a problem for the Knicks because they rank 18th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed over their last 10 games. I think the Pelicans can keep the game close enough for Murray to reach 30 minutes, so I’ll take this over.