The Clippers are an excellent defensive team, so it can feel risky take the over on a points prop for a player on the Nuggets...

Donovan Mitchell has been excellent in the playoffs. He scored 30 points in both of the first two games of this series to help the Cavaliers build a 2-0 lead. Over the 10 playoff games that Mitchell appeared in last season, he averaged 29.6 points. He scored at least 26 points in seven of those 10 games. This has the potential to be a closer game with the series shifting to Miami, so that should afford Mitchell with enough minutes and shot attempts to hit this over.

Pascal Siakam averaged 20.2 points per game this season. He was even better on the road, where he averaged 21.0 points per game. He scored 25 points against the Bucks in Game 1, then scored 24 points in Game 2. In four regular season games against the Bucks, Siakam scored 25, 20, 25 and 26 points. With plenty of minutes and shot attempts likely coming his way again, the over is the way to go here.

Jayson Tatum (wrist) is listed as doubtful for Game 3 after sitting out Game 2. The Celtics are up 2-0 in the series, so there is no need to rush him back right now. With Tatum out in Game 2, Jaylen Brown scored 36 points across 42 minutes. The key was, he took 19 shots from the field and attempted eight free throws. The Magic have a great defense and play well at home, but Brown’s increased usage rate still puts him in a favorable spot to hit this over.

The Thunder are off to a dominating 2-0 start to this series. They won Game 1 by 51 points and Game 2 by 19 points. In four regular season meetings, the Thunder beat the Grizzlies by 24, 13, 17 and 21 points. I like them to beat the Grizzlies by double-digits again and eventually sweep them out of the first round.

Jalen Brunson averaged 26.0 points per game during the regular season, so this is a big number for him to hit the over on. However, I still like him to score at least 29 points. He played at least 40 minutes and scored at least 34 points in both of the first two games of this series with the Pistons. He also attempted at least 27 shots and 10 free-throws in both games. His usage rate should remain off the charts as the Knicks try to grab a 2-1 series lead. Including the playoffs, Brunson has scored at least 31 points in five of six games against the Pistons.

Tobias Harris logged at least 40 minutes in both games of this series against the Knicks. That helped him score 25 points in Game 1 and 15 points in Game 2. The Pistons have leaned heavily on their key veteran in the playoffs and I don’t expect his playing time to decline anytime soon. Another factor that makes this over appealing is that Game 3 will be played in Detroit. On the road, Harris averaged 12.1 points and shot 45.2% from the field this season. At home, he averaged 15.3 points and shot 49.9% from the field.

After averaging 8.2 rebounds per game this season, Amen Thompson recorded nine rebounds in Game 1 against the Warriors. The Warriors play a lot of small lineups, which has benefited Thompson in previous meetings. Including Game 1, Thompson has now finished with at least eight rebounds in four of six games against the Warriors this season. In what has the potential to be another low-scoring game, Thompson could see a lot of rebounding opportunities.

The big news for Game 2 is that Jayson Tatum (wrist) is listed as doubtful. While Tatum scored a modest 17 points in Game 1, he had 22 shot attempts. Brown only scored 16 points in Game 1, mainly because he only attempted 14 shots. In seven games that Brown played without Tatum this season, he averaged 22.9 points. Another stat working in Brown’s favor is that he averaged 24.5 points per game at home this season, compared to 19.4 points per game on the road. Take the over here.

The Lakers play a lot of small lineups. Jaxson Hayes logged eight minutes in Game 1 and Alex Len played three minutes in garbage time. Those were the only two centers to even take the floor for them in the game. Dorian Finney-Smith played 32 minutes off the bench, with Gabe Vincent logging the next most minutes off the bench at 25. With the Lakers playing so small, Anthony Edwards was able to grab eight rebounds. During the regular season, he recorded at least six rebounds in all four games that he played the Lakers. Look for Edwards to remain productive on the boards in Game 2.

The Lakers need to win Game 2 before the series shifts to Minnesota. Despite their loss in Game 1, Luka Doncic scored 37 points. He attempted 22 shots across 40 minutes, 10 of which came from behind the arc. Dating back to the regular season, he has scored at least 31 points in 10 of his last 17 games. When he faced the Timberwolves in the playoffs last year, Doncic had at least 32 points in four of the five games. In the other, he had 28 points. With a hefty usage rate and a ton of minutes likely coming his way, take this over for Doncic.

The Nuggets have no bench. Russell Westbrook logged 34 minutes in Game 1. Peyton Watson and Jalen Pickett combined to play 19 minutes. Those were the only three reserves to take the floor. That resulted in Jamal Murray playing 48 minutes in the Nuggets overtime win. He wasn’t efficient, but he took 20 shots, which helped him score 21 points. For his career, he has averaged 24.1 points per game during the playoffs. The Clippers have a great defense, but I think the combination of heavy minutes and a lot of shot attempts makes this over appealing.

OG Anunoby took his game to another level when Jalen Brunson missed time at the end of the regular season because of injury. At one point, he had a 15-game stretch in which he averaged 24.6 points. In Game 1 against the Pistons, Anunoby still scored 23 points, despite Brunson scoring 34 points. One of the keys was that Anunoby played 44 minutes. During the regular season, Anunoby averaged 18.6 points and shot 51.3% from the field at home. With him possibly pushing to play 40 minutes again, I think he hits this over.

Bam Adebayo logged at least 36 minutes in both Play-In Tournament games for the Heat. That helped him grab at least 11 rebounds in both of them. He played the Cavaliers three times this season and he had at least 12 rebounds in two of those games. In the third, he had nine boards. With him possibly approaching 40 minutes in this game, I like him to grab double-digit rebounds again.

Cole Anthony scored 26 points over 20 minutes in the Play-In Tournament against the Hawks. He is less than two weeks removed from scoring 18 points over 22 minutes against the Celtics. He played the Celtics three times this season and he scored at least 10 points in each game. The Magic don’t have great scoring options outside of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, so I expect Anthony to play around 20 minutes and receive plenty of shot attempts.