Jarrett Allen had his best performance of the series in Game 3, scoring 17 points over 36 minutes. Over his last nine playoff games, he has averaged 15.7 points and shot 64.6% from the field. He scored at least 13 points in seven of those nine games, including two of the games against the Knicks. He only had 10 points in Game 1, but that was because he shot 4-for-8 from the free throw line. He doesn’t usually struggle there as he is a career 71.1% shooter from the charity stripe. Allen should play a lot as the Cavaliers try to avoid elimination, so take this over.
Mikal Bridges was excellent again in Game 3, scoring 22 points across 39 minutes. He has played at least 39 minutes and scored at least 18 points in all three games of this series. He has been incredibly efficient, shooting 71.1% from the field. Going back to the previous round, Bridges has scored at least 17 points in seven of his last eight games. With him likely to approach 40 minutes again in Game 4, the over is the way to go here.
Jalen Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable after sitting out Game 3. I think he sits again, given how many issues he has had with his hamstrings this season. To complicate matters for the Thunder, Ajay Mitchell (calf) won’t play. Cason Wallace has already had a productive series, posting at least 14 combined points, rebounds and assists in all three games. He should play close to 30 minutes Sunday, leaving him with a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
The Spurs have been trying to force the ball out of the hands of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Not only do they have good defensive guards to throw at him, but they have also been sending double teams his way. That has forced Gilgeous-Alexander to look for his teammates more. The result has been him recording at least nine assists in all three games of this series. In two of them, he had 12 assists each. Expect the Spurs to continue to deploy a similar strategy, making this over appealing.
Mitchell Robinson has recorded six or fewer rebounds in seven straight games. He only logged 14 minutes in Game 1, then followed that up with 12 minutes in Game 2. With him being such a poor free throw shooter, the Cavaliers have been intentionally fouling him to put him on the line. When they started to do that again in the second half of Game 2, the Knicks quickly pulled him from the game. Robinson is going to be hard pressed to play much more than 15 minutes in Game 3, so I’ll pay the juice and take this under.
Mikal Bridges played 42 minutes in Game 1, then followed that up with 40 minutes in Game 2. The result was him scoring 18 and 19 points, respectively. After a slow start to the playoffs, he has scored at least 17 points in six of his last seven games. He was better on the road during the regular season, averaging 15.6 points and shooting 51.5% from the field. Even with this series shifting to Cleveland, Bridges is in a favorable position to score at least 14 points.
Victor Wembanyama averaged 29 minutes per game during the regular season. Over his last 10 playoff games, he has averaged 33 minutes. That allowed him to grab at least 15 rebounds six times during that span. He posted 27 combined rebounds and assists with Game 1 against the Thunder going to double overtime. In Game 2, he had 23 combined over 37 minutes. With the home crowd behind him and the Spurs trying to go up 2-1 in the series, I think Wembanyama plays around 35 minutes and has enough opportunities to hit this over.
Despite playing 41 minutes in Game 1, Chet Holmgren only finished with eight points and eight rebounds. He produced just 19 combined points, rebounds and assists in Game 2, continuing his struggles against the Spurs. In four regular season games against them, he averaged 10.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 0.8 assists. He did not top 24 combined points, rebounds and assists in any of those four matchups. With Victor Wembanyama controlling the paint, look for Holmgren to continue to struggle.
Sam Merrill logged 28 minutes in Game 1, which was the most playing time he has seen in game during the Cavaliers playoff run. He came through with 12 points, shooting 3-for-8 from behind the arc. He has made at least two three-pointers in five straight games and has scored at least 10 points in three straight. His role seems to be increasing, and he is shooting 40.0% from three in the playoffs, so this over is appealing.
OG Anunoby looked off in his return from injury, scoring just 13 points in Game 1. He played 34 minutes, but only went 2-for-9 from the field. With him struggling, Mikal Bridges stepped up to score 18 points. That marked the fifth time over the last six games that he has scored at least 17 points. During that span, he shot 47.4% from three. After Jalen Brunson carried the Knicks to a comeback win, look for the Cavaliers to throw more double teams his way. If that happens, we could see even more open looks for Bridges. Take this over.
In his return from a hamstring injury, Jalen Williams played 37 minutes in Game 1. While he wasn’t overly efficient, he scored 26 points because he attempted 25 shots. The Spurs threw the kitchen sink at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sending double teams and focusing their defense on slowing him down. That strategy worked as the Spurs won the game, so expect much of the same for Game 2. With plenty of shot attempts likely coming his way again, I like Williams to score at least 18 points.
Dylan Harper started Game 1 with De’Aaron Fox (ankle) out. He went on to play 47 minutes, posting 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists and seven steals. Fox is questionable for Game 2, but even if he takes the floor, Harper is going to have a significant role. Prior to Monday, he had already averaged 13.7 points per game in the playoffs. Take this over.
Karl-Anthony Towns has recorded at least six assists in each of his last seven games. Three times during that span, he finished with at least 10 assists. What’s even crazier about that stat is that he only logged 26 minutes a game during that stretch with the Knicks being involved in some lopsided scores. In what has the potential to be a close game, I like Towns to come away with at least five assists.
Sam Merrill went off in Game 7 against the Pistons, making five three-pointers on his way to scoring 23 points. That was his fourth straight game with at least two made three-pointers. He made 42.1% of his attempts from behind the arc during the regular season and has shot 40.4% from deep in the playoffs. With the Knicks likely putting their best defenders on Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, look for Merrill to receive enough quality looks from three to hit this over.
In the Thunder’s sweep over the Lakers, Chet Holmgren grabbed at least nine rebounds in each of the four games. Despite the Thunder being involved in so many lopsided scores, Holmgren has averaged 9.1 rebounds a night in the playoffs. This game being at home is noteworthy because he averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in Oklahoma City during the regular season. On the road, he averaged 8.2 rebounds. In what should be a close game, expect Holmgren to play a lot and receive ample opportunities to hit this over.