No reason to pretend I've had a great read on this series as shaky goaltending has been as much my demise as the Buffalo Sabres. That all being said we're currently seeing a runaway freight train in Montreal's favor with the moneyline moving more than I anticipated on the open. I'm personally closer to a true number in this game of -139 and while I do expect Montreal to win they're not worthy of such an aggressive price. Buffalo has defied the odds all season; why not one more time in hostile territory to send us to Game 7?

31...yes 31 total power play opportunities is what we've seen from these teams over the last three games. Typically as a series goes deeper and things tighten up a lot of the nonsense goes away and we see officials more reluctant to hand out power plays like Halloween candy. Montreal has really simplified their game on the road this postseason as well averaging just 1.62xG at 5 on 5 away from home. Combine that with Jakub Dobes strong play after a loss (4-0, .948 save percentage, 1.49 GAA) and we have the recipe for an under. Full disclosure I personally split my bet U6 full game and U1.5 (-105) for the 1st period tonight.

Buffalo came out on fire in Game 1 and capitalized against a beleaguered Canadiens side; it was Montreal turning the tables in game 2 with with a pair of quick tallies to force Buffalo into a negative game state. Early goals have headlined this series so far yet we've seen both games push a closing total of 6. I expect Buffalo to simplify their approach on the road like they did vs Boston that made them so successful while Montreal showed their defensive mettle at home vs Tampa as well. Tage Thompson appears to be dealing with an undisclosed injury as well that can hamper the Sabres offensive push meaning this contest has all the makings of a 3-2 grudge match.

I had a chance to see Game 1 up close and personal between these Pacific division rivals. After 60 minutes I came away with a few major observations: one of which that the Ducks are going to be the faster team all series but that Vegas won't stray from their identity. Anaheim was the better team at 5 on 5 but if you're going to win games against a structured opponent like the VGK squandering chances won't work. I really believe we're in for a longer series than oddsmakers think and while it's scary fading Vegas off that lackluster effort Monday I really believe the Ducks will bear down and convert against Hart. This price is too much for me to pass up here.

Not going to over think this game 2 approach as I'm going under the total of 5.5. The Flyers generated next to nothing at 5 on 5 and with Owen Tippett again listed as doubtful not sure much changes. Meanwhile for Carolina, they've shown throughout the playoffs their goal is to get a lead and take the air out of things; something they've become adept at doing in the past. I expect there to be a little more offense in Game 2 than what we saw in Game 1 but Carolina's defense still provides a tough nut to crack for a young Flyers' team.

Carter Hart's honeymoon phase under Coach Tortorella has worn off with back to back mediocre efforts between the pipes in Salt Lake. Fortunately for Hart the defensive structure of the Knights insulates him most evenings and I'm looking for that trend to continue here. The first two games in this series saw a combined 7.71 expected goals at 5 on 5 compared to 10.33 the last two games. Game state made each of the last two contests more wide open especially when teams were chasing multi-goal deficits. Given the swing we'll see tonight I'm looking for a low event tight checking well disciplined effort from both sides lending itself to an under position.

Take the names off the front of the jerseys and one of these teams has looked the part of perennial contender and it's not the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton can blame lackluster goaltending again but that shifts too much responsibility off a group that didn't generate a single shot on net the final 11 minutes of Game 3. Both of the Oilers stars are dealing with nagging injuries and that's a problem for a top heavy line-up. Anaheim has flashed their youth, speed, and veteran savvy behind the bench through three games. I show value in the home team anything +103 or better in Game 4 especially if we get a Tristan Jarry start for the Oilers.

Dallas has nine goals through three games of this series; 6 of those have come on the power play. When this series is played at 5 on 5 (hasn't happened a ton) chances for both sides have been hard to come by consistently. Minnesota knows discipline needs to be the order of the day here and I expect them to be smarter with their sticks. Dallas did a tremendous job in game three preventing inner slot shots and I expect that trend to continue here as the Wild will yet again be without Mats Zuccarello. Going right back to the well with an under bet in this series.

Jesper Wallsteadt and Jake Oettinger have been the story so far this series; Wallsteadt has answered the bell in his first two playoff starts while Oettinger looked incredibly sharp in Game 2 after an underwhelming performance to start the series. Both of these teams do so much of their damage on special teams but in a tight checking pivotal Game 3 I don't expect to see the same volume of special teams opportunities as we did in Dallas. This has been a low event series thus far when played at even strength and I believe that trend continues tonight with the first team to 3.

Game 1 was one that I'm sure members of the Tampa Bay Lightning and HC Jon Cooper would love to forget. Montreal made them pay for a slew of offensive zone penalties including the GWG from Juraj Slafkovsky to complete his hat trick with each tally coming on the PP. Lost in the shuffle of that result was a game devoid of scoring chances at 5 v 5. The underlying expected goal figure at even strength was barely more than 2. I'd hoped for a better market price given the 4-3 scoreline but I still show an edge going under a juiced 6 here when both teams are more than comfortable playing low event hockey.

I've been extremely bullish on the Ottawa Senators since the return to play from the Olympics and that's mainly because of their overall defensive structure and an ability to punch up in class. Look, winning in Raleigh Game 83 and beyond isn't easy but the Sens found themselves in an alley fight even when they didn't play their best. I don't show a massive edge here but even if Zub doesn't go for Ottawa this is a side I want to back at a strong dog price

Loose, fast, and free...that's how I expect game 82 to look for a Red Wings team disappointed on how the 2nd half of the season spiraled away from them. Meanwhile, Florida's attempt to 3-peat was derailed early on with an injury to Sasha Barkov that became a harbinger for things to come. Florida will ice an AHL blue line tonight as all 6 projected opening day starters are out. Matthew Tkachuk returns and there's speculation Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett could join him on the top line. Let's root for pond hockey in the Everglades tonight.

I don't expect a lot of the key pieces for the penguins to be out there in their regular season finale. Most of the key cogs logged major minutes on Sunday against the Capitals but in my opinion that was a sign of respect for Ovi above all else. The price isn't nearly as good as what we had against the Wild but this price is only moving one direction in my opinion.

This is another game where I expect a Minnesota Wild team locked into the 3 seed in the central to rest some key contributors over the final two games. While we don't know who will sit in this game I actually show value in the dog if the Wild were at full speed. Look for the Blues to potentially close a short favorite before puck drop on Monday night.

Ottawa clinched their WC spot yesterday with a big win at the Isles so what does that mean going forward? I expect a number of key regulars to be on the shelf today it's just a question of who sits. I'm more than willing to grab the dog here as I expect NJ to close a favorite