Projected Total 5.5 O -120 (bettable anything U5.5 +105 if number not available Goalies: Helleybuck vs Greaves CBJ has hit the skids of late going just 1-5-1 in their attempt to secure a wild card spot with injuries playing a major role. Winnipeg meanwhile has no margin for error as they try to close the gap for WC2 leaning into better defensive effort allowing just 2.9 xG over their L10 games. My expectation is we get a tight checking cagey affair with both starting netminders capable of stealing the show

My number: Stars -132 Expected Starters: Helleybuck (WPG) - Oettinger (DAL) My projected number is shorter than market but I'll admit trying to quantify motivation at this juncture of the campaign can be tricky. Dallas looks like a side that knows they're locked into the 2nd spot in the Central while the Jets need every point possible. Quietly the Jets youth movement on the back end has paid off and they're showing signs of life down the stretch. The dog is live here for me and worth a shot

My Total: 6 flat Projected Starters: Ingram (EDM) vs Daccord (SEA) Edmonton has started to show signs of the defensive structure that led them to the Stanley Cup Finals each of the past two seasons. Connor Ingram might be the team's most reliable option since Mike Smith manned the pipes. Over their L5 games the Oilers grade out a top 10 defensive side while the Kraken bottom 5 in generating scoring opportunities. On the other side of the ice the Oilers still have 97 but aren't trying to play pond hockey the same way we saw earlier this year. Seattle has been a bit leaky themselves but with so much at stake for both sides 6.5 on the total was a touch rich for me.

My Projected total: 6 (-110) Expected Goalies: Hofer (STL) vs Nedeljkovic (SJS) The Blues have found their strength; it's playing a compact defensive style in front of two goaltenders that have been very good since the return from the Olympics. San Jose meanwhile still wants to play more open but turning every game into a trackmeet isn't the best recipe for success. I still don't believe the market has captured how good the Blues are defensively limiting chances while the goaltending has shown flashes so we'll go early on this total before the 6.5 disappears from market

My Price: Flyers +112 Goalies: (PHI) Vladar is confirmed while John Gibson (DET) is expected to start the 2nd leg of a back to back; if Gibson can't go my number drops to Flyers +103 Detroit had a great performance last night vs Buffalo; tallying 3 1st period goals for the first time in a long time and playing from a very positive game state against an overvalued Sabres side. Detroit has all the pressure shifting to them here and they've struggled in back to backs all season; I just can't get to this number. Late in the year I prefer backing teams outside the playoff race that are still fighting and Philly fits that bill. Live dog here for us tonight.

Projected Total 5.5 Over (-120) Confirmed Goalies: Hofer (Blues) vs Askarov (Sharks) Yaroslav Askarov returns from a 2 week injury in net for SJ and while normally I'd shy away from a goalie in this spot, he can't be worse than what San Jose has had in net lately. St Louis will be without their top center and offensive weapon Robert Thomas which limits their offensive upside even against a leaky Sharks side. Joel Hofer has quietly been awesome allowing just 7 goals in his last 5 starts including two shutouts while registering a .939 save percentage or better in all of those games. It's not easy playing SJS unders but against a Blues team without their main offensive creator it's a bet worth making

My Line: Devils -111 Projected goalies: Markstrom (NJD) vs Saros (NSH) The Predators are one of the league's hottest teams winners of five straight but doing it against 4 non-playoff teams. Their win over Vegas? Well at one point shot attempts were 25-1 in favor of VGK. Devils grade out as a top 5 team in expected goal share since the Olympics and this is a perception price more than reality. They grade out better for me both on the offensive and defensive side over the last 5 games so at current market price this was a straightforward click on the road dog

Projected Total 5.5 (Under -115) Expected starting goalies: Dan Vladar (PHI) vs Jet Greaves (CBJ); if we get Elvis for CBJ my projected total moves to 5.5 (Over -120) Both of these teams have taken to leaning on their defensive structure in a quest to make the postseason and currently grade out as top 5 teams in expected goals against the last 5. With so much at stake I expect a tight game throughout and both sides struggling to sustain offensive pressure for a full 60.

My projected total for this game is 6 Under -115 Greaves (CBJ #1) vs Sorokin (starting back to back) I'm making a manual adjustment for playoff jockeying here combined with the Isles giving up a season high 7 goals yesterday. CBJ have become one of the better xG defensive teams in the league and the market has been slow to capture it. I have no issues with folks shopping for U6.5 (-120) but we'll take the +05 here

The Islanders finish off their So Cal double with a back to back against the Kings. Patrick Roy elected to lean on back-up David Rittich last night and the Isles got goalie'd by the Ducks in a 5-1 loss. LA meanwhile is reeling but the betting market still gives them plenty of respect. Quietly they moved a depth forward earlier today in Warren Foegele not signaling a white flag but interesting for a team fighting to stay alive. I just don't price the Kings the same way as the market so the dog with Ilya Sorokin scheduled to start worth a bet

Short and sweet, speculation Connor McDavid won't be available on Wednesday against Anaheim. The Ducks appear to be close to full speed including the return of top line center Leo Carlsson from injury. Again, not going to over analyze a number where the Ducks close a favorite if 97 can't go so we'll move early on the dog.

Not going to bombard you with word salad in this handicap. Vegas could face a division rival without arguably it's 5 best players in Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin (still celebrating with Team USA) and a trio of top Canadians in Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore, and Mark Stone potentially being rested after missing practice on Tuesday. If all five players are out this line will move one way and it's worth getting ahead of it today with an educated line-up guess.

We already know the Dallas Stars will be without the services of their leading scorer Miko Raantanen for a bit after he suffered an injury for Team Finland. Dallas also announce Centers Rope Hintz & Radek Faksa are game time decisions as well. I'll also make the claim we could see Dallas load manage minutes for their top D-man Miro Heiskanen as well after seven grueling international games. All of that to say the Kraken are a much healthier/rested bunch fighting for every point at this juncture of the season. I show value all the way down to +137 on the Kraken in this spot.

Heading into the Olympic break we're taking a conservative approach on bet sizing. We're getting to the point of the absurd on this total and I'll take the bait. San Jose hasn't created a ton of chances at 5 on 5 of late regardless of their scorelines. Edmonton hasn't exactly been air tight defensively either but that's also why we have a 7 in play here. My total on the game is 6.64 so under is worth a bet.

Bet sizing plans to be more conservative as we head towards the Olympic break, play accordingly. Buffalo has been white hot; the Sabres have the best record in the league since December 3rd and are firmly in playoff position for the first time in over a decade. That being said the market is starting to catch-up and while I'm generally not bullish on the Kings this price warrants a bet. My fair number for the game is right around -101 so I'll step in front of the runaway freight train known as the Sabres tonight