

Mike Tierney
Top Dog
A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. Mike does not consider himself a pet lover. But he likes 'dogs, preferring to evaluate each game from the underdog's point of view. Mike is 320-271-16 in the NFL the past four seasons, returning $1,867 to $100 players. That includes Mike going 130-101 ATS (56.3 percent) the past two seasons. And over the past two college football seasons, Mike is 121-103 (plus $741 for $100 players). For Mike Tierney media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Mike's Picks
1 Live PicksRunning Air Force's offense is not an
These teams are almost gonna wait 'til the midnight hour -- at least based on the Bearcats' body clock. The 11 p.m. (ET) kickoff poses a challenge to Cincy, which has yet to partake in a true road game. 'Zona has made two trips and is coming off a win at Washington State. The Bearcats might be 4-0 SU, but they were outgained last weekend by Kansas State and trailed Miami (Ohio) by three TDs at halftime before eking out a victory. Wildcats' QB Noah Fifita is the real deal. Lay the points with Arizona.
Texas State might be stifling yawns because of the late West Coast kickoff, but the Bobcats would not trade places with their hosts. A mumps outbreak in the Aztecs campus has decimated the roster, with a reported 14 players affected so far. Add in injuries, and 17 are listed as doubtful or out on the injury report. Texas State has bounced back from a thrashing from Texas with three SU wins, the latest a walkover against Incarnate Word. S.D. State's season to date has been the reverse -- a Week 1 victory followed by three setbacks, each by double digits. This line has climbed a few points stemming from reports and could rise further.
While acknowledging that we should be skeptical of anything Lane Kiffin says, the LSU coach claims he might sit numerous banged-up starters in what amounts to a walkover game. One could be QB Sam Leavitt, who played through a bum hamstring last Saturday when the Tigers needed him against Texas A&M. Starting next week, LSU enters a stretch of seven SEC matchups, with five of the teams ranked. Why pour it on a fellow Louisiana team? McNeese, averaging 24 points and 419 yards per game, can conjure up enough offense to make a Tigers' cover difficult.
"Hot" is the operative word here. It describes the seat on which USC coach Lincoln Riley sits because of a loss to Oregon and a floundering defense that has become habitual since his hiring. The new D-coordinator is a Hall of Famer, Gary Patterson, so surely he will figure out a fix. "Hot" also describes the temperature, which could push 100 degrees at kickoff. The conditions could give an edge to the acclimated hosts. The Huskies' kiddie lineups -- 14 freshmen and sophomores -- get their first taste of a road game this season. An offense lacking playmakers will struggle to keep up with USC's scoring pace.
The Cougars have coasted to three wins with an ideal balanced offense behind dual-threat QB Bear Bachmeier, who has thrown for a single pick. They are deadly once in the red zone and are stepping out of a bye week. TCU is 0-2 SU against Power Four opposition, with just 23 points scored. Its glossy 12.5-point allowance per game is misleading, with its less impressive yardage yield. Good luck finding explosive plays given BYU’s No. 8 FBS rank for fewest allowed. The projected modest scoring might favor the Horned Frogs if the spread were north of seven points. At 6.5, BYU is for you.
This is more of a pick against South Carolina than for Kentucky. The Gamecocks are straight-up losers in seven consecutive SEC games and nine of the last 10. Reputable QB LaNorris Sellers has been so shaky that embattled coach Shane Beamer gave backup Cutter Woods extra practice snaps and could deploy him. Accomplished edge rusher Dylan Stewart sits under a one-game suspension for fighting, which heightens the challenge for a team that has allowed 90 points the past two weeks. Kentucky prefers running than passing, and S.C. has been ineffective slowing ground games. A few good words about the Wildcats: They've been a pleasant surprise.
The Hawkeyes playing at home against ranked opponents has been a winning ATS formula. Iowa covered in defeats to sixth-rated Oregon and 11th-rated Indiana last season. Its last ATS setback to a visitor in the top 25 came four years ago. Overall, the Hawkeyes have failed to cover once in the past seven outings when spotted points. The defense is yielding an FBS-low eight points per game. The Buckeyes are potent, but they will find scoring more difficult than usual.
Florida is keeping the scoreboard operator busy. The Gators' points output in four games: 66, 52, 44, 52. They have yet to fall behind in FBS games while attaining a No. 5 offense rating. Perhaps no performance was more impressive this season than the win by two-dozen points over Mississippi State. Missouri could use all the defensive help it can get, but edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen have been scratched. They've combined for five tackles for losses.
Stanford might be pining for the good 'ol days of limited travel in the former Pac-12. Two weeks after zipping across the country to a 35-7 shellacking at Duke, the Cardinal are back in the ET zone -- worse, with a noon kickoff this time. Wake's lone loss was to mighty Miami, ahd the Deacons are coming off an upset at Louisville. They should thrive on the ground against the No. 88 rush defense in FBS. In a pinch, they can lean on dead-eye PK Connor Calbert, with one miss in 10 field goal tries this season.
Both teams can score, which is partly attributable to opposing teams struggling to decipher their run-oriented offenses. But because the QBs have combined for a mere 33 pass completions this season, the clock should be rolling non-stop for much of the game, which sets up an Under. Air Force has the second highest rushing rate in FBS, while the Middies are fifth. The Falcons will unleash a veteran defense. On the other hand, the early (10 a.m. local) kickoff might gum up the works for their offense. Don't blink. This game, relatively speaking, could get over with in a hurry.
Arkansas trustees have commissioned a feasibility study on the program, which is believed to provide the lowest player, uh, payroll in the SEC. So dust off the “sense of urgency” cliche for this matchup. A defeat would begin to close the curtains on coach Ryan Silverfield's days. The Razorbacks are not about to take lightly a Group of Six league opponent, especially an unbeaten one receiving votes in the polls. The ‘Backs get a bit of relief after getting taken to the woodshed by No. 15 Utah and No. 2 Georgia. They get a break with Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes (knee) declared out. Reliever Dexter Williams was shaky against an FCS foe last Saturday, barely completing 50 percent.
With losses the past two weeks by a combined 91-28, Southern Miss could get drilled again. QB Landry Lyddy steps in for an injured comrade for just his second start as a Golden Eagle. His receiving corps has been thinned by injuries to productive WRs Jaylen Himes and Grant Page. Both teams are 1-2 SU, but Southern Miss' lone win was against FCS punching bag Alcorn State while Tulane was nails-tough in its defeats -- by 10 points at Duke, 11 at Kansas State. The Eagles are still licking wounds inflicted by UConn and Auburn.
Tough times for Northern Illinois, which is operating with an interim coach — a rarity in the sport — and an unappetizing schedule. Temp boss Rob Harley got burdened by seven road games, with the next in Atlanta following a trek to Arizona. The Huskies’ red zone conversion efficiency (50 percent) is superior to just one FBS team. Can’t score, can’t win. And they haven’t. Georgia State breezed in its first two outings, then led Central Florida at halftime before bowing. Its stout pass defenses matches up nicely against NIU's pass-minded offense. If the Panthers’ lively rush offense bogs down, enter PK Samer Layous. He is perfect on 19 field goals and PATs.
The total has plunged a full touchdown since the dire weather forecast. It could dip further, not so much because of almost certain rain but wind in the mid-20s. Virginia Tech QB Ethan Grunkemeyer and his backup average a hefty 38 passes per game, and the Hokies could be down two O-line starters. B.C.'s Mason McKenzie has pitched it far fewer times -- for good reason. His accuracy is a so-so 58 percent. Expect both offenses to reduce their throwing, and a ground-leaning game means more of a moving clock and lower scoring.
