Buffalo's offense has scored 24+ in every game, while Minnesota has scored six offensive touchdowns since Week 2 ...

The Bears are off a stunning performance in Seattle, and we have to be careful not to buy high. But the lookahead for this game was also Bears -6, and I'm more a believer that the Bears are an elite team with Jeffery Simmons stabilizing the defense than I am the Buccaneers are a good team after two weird wins where they didn't have to throw the ball. The Bucs defense has been strong this season, but Chicago just carved up what might be the best defense in the league so I can't expect scoring will be impossible for the Bears. If the Bucs get behind, will we finally see something from the passing attack? I think this should be north of 7.

Ashton Jeanty saw his playing time plummet last week as he continued to be phased out of the rushing attack, but he still made an impact as a receiver thanks to a 45-yard catch. That gave him 50 receiving yards in four of the last five games and 36 receiving yards in six straight. He's only fallen short of this mark once this season, and even there, he had seven targets but couldn't gain longer than seven yards on any of his four receptions. The 49ers have surrendered seven RB receptions per game, and they're the only defense giving up 50 receiving yards to RBs. I like buying the dip and hoping his playing time rebounds, but he could hit this number in limited work.

The Packers will get some extra rest to heal up for this matchup against a Patriots team that struggled to put the Dolphins away. While they should fare better at home, I've been encouraged by the performance of the Packers' defense in recent weeks. Their early-season success came with a number of caveats, but holding the Cowboys, Lions and Panthers to 20 points or less in three straight is notable. The Patriots' offensive surge has coincided with a slate of bad defensive opponents, so if Jordan Love can have success against a defense that gave up 26+ points to the Jaguars, Bills and Bears, the Packers could certainly win this game. I'm grabbing the 3 while I can, as I can't see this line rising.

Drew Lock is set to start in place of Sam Darnold, and I'm not sure it's a downgrade. Lock fared well earlier this season, taking over in a tough spot in the opener to beat the Patriots and then helping throttle the Cardinals the following week. Since Darnold's return, Seattle is 2-4 (with one win against the winless Chargers) and has covered once. While the Seahawks are dealing with a number of injuries, the Cardinals are also banged up on both sides of the ball, and I can't see Gardner Minshew having the same success in Seattle that Caleb Williams did. This feels like a game where Seattle can ride Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a healthier RB group to a double-digit win.

Houston comes off the bye with an enviable matchup against a winless Chargers team, and it's a great get-right spot for a defense that's underwhelmed this year. The Chargers haven't scored an offensive touchdown since Week 5, and only one of their games has gone over 40 points on the season with the defense at least putting up a fight most weeks. The Texans offense has been able to put up points but is largely one-dimensional with the run game not working, which makes it easier for the Chargers to gameplan. This feels like a game that tops out at 24-17 but probably ends up falling well short of 41.

The Broncos have the worst yardage differential of any team to start 6-2 or better in NFL history, per CBS Research. The offense has started to get better, with Bo Nix throwing downfield successfully a couple of times a game and Jonah Coleman looking like an emerging backfield weapon. But I still see value fading this team on the road on what looks like an inflated number after they were -2.5 on the lookahead. Carolina gets extra rest after playing last Thursday, and even against a strong Broncos defense, I think the offense can bounce back and have success at home, and it'll be up to the defense not to get run all over. I'd make this line Broncos -1.

The Colts showed absolutely no fight last week as they got pasted by the Jaguars, but I could see them showing up for this one. It could be the final game in Indy for franchise icon Jonathan Taylor, and he should have success against a Cowboys defense that ranks 31st in yards per rush allowed. The Cowboys have been inconsistent all year, finding a way to lose to Jalon Daniels and Gardner Minshew over the last month. I have them rated slightly below average, and with their defense, I can't back the Cowboys laying this many points on the road, even against a bad team like the Colts. It's a good bounceback spot for the Indy offense after tough matchups against Minnesota and Jacksonville.

The Saints come out of their bye shorthanded at the running back position, with Travis Etienne still sidelined and C.J. Donaldson out. As a result, they added Estime off waivers this week, and he could be in line for a decent amount of work right away. Alvin Kamara is dealing with a back injury, and that makes it less likely the Saints will give him double-digit carries for the first time this season. Kendre Miller leads the Saints in rushing attempts but was surprisingly released on Saturday. With the Saints averaging 21 RB carries per game, that gives Estime the potential to get double-digit looks out of the gate, particularly if the Saints defense can limit Shedeur Sanders and the Browns offense.

The Rams have managed two consecutive easy wins, but the offense wasn't all that impressive last week. Ten points against the Chargers came on eight and 22-yard drives, and prior to the game-icing drive, they had just two drives over 23 yards in the game. The prior game was against the awful Raiders defense. Washington has given up fewer points than the previous game in every matchup since Week 2, with its defense looking particularly solid since Jayden Daniels' return aside from a fourth-quarter meltdown against the Giants. I'd only make this line Rams -4.5 and that's with them still largely getting the benefit of the doubt in my power ratings as a contender.

Bhayshul Tuten hasn't practiced this week and is listed as questionable to play Thursday. Even if he's active, there's a good chance that Rodriguez sees more workload than usual in a game where the Jaguars are expected to win by multiple scores. His 28-yard touchdown against the Colts gave him three scores in the last five games, while the Ravens have surrendered seven rushing touchdowns to running backs in eight games. If Tuten is inactive, Rodriguez should become a moderate favorite to reach the end zone, and even if Tuten plays, I think he has a better than 50% shot of getting there.

The Ravens are massive home underdogs due to their QB situation, but that should be good news for Hill in the passing game. He had eight targets last week with Joe Fagnano throwing 21 of the team's 25 pass attempts, getting to 20 yards in a game where the Ravens had just 91 passing yards. He also had 26 yards on three catches (four targets) against the Bengals the previous week when the Ravens lost by 22, and it was his fifth straight game with at least three targets. Expect a few checkdowns to go his way here, and I think he has a great chance to get to 20 yards for a third straight game.

The Seahawks offense got back on track against the Chiefs by turning the ball over only once. Now they'll get to face a Bears defense allowing a league-worst 6.3 yards per play. That means we should expect another strong performance from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and it'll be on the Bears offense to keep up, But they'll be on the road against the best defense in the league. The Seahawks lead the league with just 4.4 net yards per pass attempt, giving up no more than 176 net passing yards in a single game. Their rush defense is second in yards per attempt, and NFL leading rusher Kenneth Walker managed just 2.6 yards per carry on Sunday night. This line should be closer to Seahawks -6.

The Eagles remain beset by injuries heading into another primetime matchup, but they held their own against the Cowboys and held a lead late in the third quarter. Ultimately their defense was not able to get enough stops on a dangerous Cowboys offense, but this is a step down in quality of opponent, especially with Terry McLaurin and Jacory Croskey-Merritt sidelined. Washington's one win this year featured just one drive longer than 43 yards but somehow 33 points on the scoreboard, and they have the 31st scoring defense in the league. I don't think these units collectively deserved to be favored by this much against basically anyone, so I'm fading the massive market line move on this game.

The Chiefs just got dominated, while the Broncos offense looked the best it has all year. But that comes down to opposition, as the Chiefs faced the best defense in the league while the Broncos faced one of the worst. When these teams met in Week 1, the Broncos managed just 176 yards of offense and had no answers for Kenneth Walker, who had 191 yards of offense himself. Now Jaylen Waddle is in question for this matchup due to a chest injury, so I don't know how the Broncos move the ball consistently and score points. This is a good buy-low spot for Kansas City and a sell-high spot for Denver, and I'd make this line Chiefs -3.