This is an awesome Monday night matchup that many believed before the season could be a Super Bowl preview ...

The 49ers are by some accounts the best team in the league, with a top-three unit on both sides of the ball, and there's a chance Nick Bosa could be back for this game despite not practicing last week. I'd make a completely healthy 49ers team at least 4-point underdogs against what I think is the best team in the league, but one that is continually underrated by the market. The Seahawks outscored the 49ers 54-9 in Week 18 and the divisional round last year, and this Seattle team looks nearly as good, particularly with the best defense in football. This is going to get to 3 in a hurry, but I'd still play Seattle at that number.

Kittle has looked none the worse for wear after surprisingly returning for Week 1 after his playoff injury, but this is not a great matchup for him. While Kittle has reached 70 yards in three straight, two of those games involved long receptions that I don't think will be there against a tough Seattle defense. The Seahawks have allowed 29 receiving yards per game to tight ends, including holding Trey McBride to 41 yards on 10 targets. Last year, Kittle posted 4-25 and 5-29 receiving lines against Seattle. While you obviously can't make the line 29.5, there's an argument it should be 10 yards lower than it is, with the current number likely contingent on hitting an unlikely big play.

I really wanted to attack the spread in this game after watching the abysmal Broncos offense throw zero-yard passes repeatedly week after week, getting to comical levels against a beat-up 49ers defense last week. Then I saw that the Chargers lost both starting tackles to injury against the Seahawks, and I find it impossible to have faith in them with the state of the offensive line. So that points me to the Under in this game, even with the Chargers giving up 24+ points every week. The Broncos offense beats itself more often than not, looking particularly bad in its two road games this year.

The Raiders saw a significant rise in quality of opponent in Week 4 and largely rose to the challenge. Without a kickoff fumble late in the game, they could've had a chance to win a back-and-forth fourth quarter after not trailing in the first 45 minutes. I've upgraded their rating considerably after their strong start and downgraded the Patriots, who got back on track by beating the Bills on the road. I like fading a team off such a rivalry upset win, especially with the Raiders off a rivalry loss that slipped through their fingers. I don't think this line should be higher than 2, so I love catching more than a field goal here.

The Vikings are perhaps the biggest surprise through four weeks at 4-0, and it's thanks to an incredible defense that ranks first in EPA per play, success rate and scoring. The offense has been awful, scoring just one TD in the last three weeks, with Kyler Murray playing the last two games. The Saints' run defense has been abysmal, but considering the Vikings just spent three hours settling for field goals at home against the Dolphins, I'm not sure it matters. I'm going to smash Unders in Vikings games until their offense gives me a reason not to.

I'm taking a bit of a risk here with the Saints yet to play in Week 4 as of writing, but I have to get down on this number while I can. The Vikings have had the worst offense in the league, averaging 4.4 yards per play, and Kyler Murray has not been impressive on the field even with Minnesota stacking wins. They scored no touchdowns against a Miami team that had given up 11 in its previous three games and were unable to cover a big number. No matter how good the defense is playing, this is a team that should not be laying points on the road, especially with the Saints offense quietly being one of Minnesota's toughest matchups in ideal conditions.

The Jets lost 23-12 to the Bears in a game that wasn't that close, with Chicago running 89 plays and holding the ball nearly 43 minutes. That Jets defense now has to face a Browns offense that has improved as the season has progressed, scoring 27 against a good Steelers defense last week. Geno Smith has a decent chance to bounce back here with the Browns expected to be without standout D-lineman Mason Graham, and the weather looks to be clear skies. This game should probably be at least 41 on the total.

After Week 1, the Browns looked as bad as expected, but we've seen that the Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the league. Since then, the Browns offense has gotten better every week, most recently scoring three first-half TDs against a good Steelers defense. They've had extra rest after that Thursday game and now get to face a Jets defense that ran 89 plays last Sunday, staying on the field for nearly 43 minutes. I'd make Cleveland much heavier favorites to get to 20 points.

The Colts didn't play as well as the final score last week suggests, but I've been more impressed by them than the Steelers while playing tougher competition. Pittsburgh's one impressive week involved winning a back-and-forth shootout against Cincinnati in Week 3, and the defense didn't rebound last week against the Browns. While potentially rainy weather could mitigate the Steelers' injuries in the secondary, it could also turn this into a Jonathan Taylor vs. Jaylen Warren battle, and I know who I want to back there. With a 3 popping up in the market, I have to jump on the Colts in this one as by ratings I think this should be close to a pick 'em anyway.

The Colts went into their London game with a baffling game plan: establish the pass. Jonathan Taylor got one carry in the first three drives, picked up a first down on back-to-back carries to start the fourth drive and then sat out until the sixth drive. Those five drives went nowhere and left the Colts in a tight battle with a third-string rookie QB. I hope Shane Steichen took some lessons from those failures and focuses more on the run game this week instead of firing away with a QB who is 28th out of 29 qualified passers in yards per attempt. With Alec Pierce still sidelined, I don't see Jones getting the explosive plays he'd need to go over this total.

This is the battle of two 0-4 teams where one is seeing its record ignored. Even if you treat the Texans like a Super Bowl contender, it's rare to see a home 'dog of more than a touchdown this early in the season. Those underdogs in the first six weeks of the year are 24-11 ATS since 1995, including 6-1 in the last 10 years. If the Texans defense finally reverts to form, it's hard to see Cam Ward having success, but that defense has also failed to hold late leads in three of its first four games. With a low total in this matchup, the Titans should have a great shot at getting a cover here.

The Bears are once again going with Tyson Bagent at QB after he led the team to a dominant win while running 89 offensive plays. But Chicago also kicked three field goals from 30 yards or shorter while showing an inability to consistently finish drives. Bagent also put the ball in danger repeatedly, leading to the Jets' first interception in nearly two years and a few other near-misses. The Packers are a severely downgraded team with their injury issues, which came to light against the Falcons, but Atlanta's offensive success was validated Monday night. I can't see the Bears laying a full field goal on the road with a backup QB making sense here, and I like fading Chicago's inflated rating.

The Bears have played four games featuring three different QBs this season, and Odunze has gotten to 40 yards in all of them. Last week with Tyson Bagent was his best performance of the year, and while some of that can be chalked up to the Bears running 89 plays, he led the team in receiving for the first time all year. Bagent is back under center for this matchup, and Odunze has proven to be the type of receiver who could hit this Over on one big play, as he had a 37-yard catch last week. I think this number has to start at 39.5 and should probably be a lot higher after last week.

This spread has ballooned since it opened, with people fading a severely injured Eagles team. Rather than come in late in the line move, I like playing against the Eagles offense on a team total. The Jaguars are second in points allowed and familiar with the cross-Atlantic travel spot. The Eagles offense may be down to Will Shipley, Dontayvion Wicks, Makai Lemon and Zach Ertz at the skill positions, and Markel Bell did not play well when pressed into duty in place of Lane Johnson, who retired this week. We'll see if he's better with a week of prep, but Philadelphia was lucky to score 20 last week with just 172 yards of offense, and this is just as tough a matchup.