For all the gushing over Max Scherzer in Game 4 of the ALCS, he still gave up two runs in less than six innings in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Dodger Stadium isn't pitcher friendly. The Dodgers tag Scherzer with a crooked number early.

The only game this series to come in under this was Game 1 and the offenses are far more familiar with the opposing pitching staffs at this point. There's plenty of firepower on each side and we don't even need a high-scoring affair, as 6-2 or 5-3 gets us home. M's starter George Kirby was torched in Game 3 and is worse on the road while Blue Jays starter Shane Bieber isn't reliable enough to put zeroes on the board into the middle innings.

I'm aware of Tarik Skubal starting this game and being the best pitcher on the planet. I just think the Mariners find a way to grind out a win at home, not unlike Game 2 of this series when Skubal started. The Tigers have actually lost four of Skubal's last five starts. That isn't a predictive stat, I'm just illustrating that it's fine to bet against them when he pitches.

The Phillies' lefties (Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Ranger Suarez) have handled the Dodgers nicely twice through the order and all the runs in Game 3 allowed the Phillies to save their big bullpen guns. I like the Phillies to hit enough to pull off the upset.

This is basically a vibes pick. The Guardians have all the swagger here and they're at home. The Tigers are pathetic right now and have been one of the worst teams since early July. Plus, Guardians rookie Parker Messick has a 2.08 ERA thus far in his career as yet another product of the Cleveland pitching development machine.

The Astros are 28-34 in the second half. The A's are 34-26. The Astros are 9-12 in September. The A's are 12-8. Astros pitcher Framber Valdez has a 6.71 ERA in his last nine starts and the Astros are 1-8 in those starts. Take the better team, and, by that, I mean the A's.

The Braves have won eight in a row and look like the team many of us picked to make the playoffs. The Nationals are still bad despite two straight wins over whatever the Mets are right now. I love the Chris Sale vs. MacKenzie Gore matchup for the Braves, too. This is a mismatch.

The Twins are the worst team in baseball in the second half with an 18-35 record and -81 run differential. Starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson has a 4.58 ERA and he won't go more than five innings before a bad bullpen (5.68 ERA in second half) takes over. Carlos Rodon won't have trouble against that bad Twins' lineup, either.

The Mets are one of the better contact teams in baseball and have struck out 12 times in two games against Jesus Luzardo this season. I like them to make better contact now seeing him a third time. And while I'm not predicting one, necessarily, Luzardo is prone to the occasional meltdown.

I've got a bit of a gut feeling here on the road 'dogs. I like Stephen Kolek and what he's done since getting to Kansas City and working with pitching guru Brian Sweeney while the Royals have seen Gavin Williams twice already while he can get himself in trouble with walks and home runs.

The Mariners just outscored the Braves by a count of 28-4 over the last two games. They had been awful before that for a stretch, but I like the happy flight before this pitching matchup in Seattle, where the Mariners are 41-27. M's starter Bryan Woo has a 2.35 home ERA while Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has a 6.79 road ERA.

Phillies starter Aaron Nola is broken. He has a 6.78 ERA and it's 8.38 since he returned from a lengthy injury absence. On the other side, I feel like things have gone far too swimmingly for Mets rookie Nolan McLean and he's due a little regression, especially since a righty-mashing team that just was dominated by him on Aug. 27. Both bullpens can be vulnerable, too.

It's difficult to figure this line past the lingering stigma of the White Sox. They're better than the Twins right now. The Sox are 20-23 since the All-Star break while the Twins are 15-28. The White Sox have won five straight head-to-head here. Shane Smith (2.67 ERA since ASG) is the better starting pitcher, too, and the White Sox destroyed Taj Bradley on July 23 and Aug. 24.

I'm still not trusting Aaron Nola. He was brutal in his first start coming off the injured list and adequate last time, but not enough to shake any concerns. Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Braves with his 5.51 ERA and that's 9.72 in August. The Phillies' offense is great and the Braves still have plenty of pop. Neither bullpen is reliable, either.

The Red Sox have won six of seven while the Orioles have lost six of seven. Perhaps some are thinking things might even out a little here, but the Orioles are cooked while the Red Sox are surging for the AL East title. Plus, it's Garrett Crochet vs. Cade Povich (5.13 ERA). Everything here tells me a multi-run Red Sox win.