Would like to see this line under a touchdown before kickoff, but siding with Georgia either way. The Dawgs won this game by eight earlier in the year. Since then, their defense has improved while the Rebels lost Lane Kiffin to LSU. That clearly motivated Ole Miss in its opener, but UGA is not Tulane, and it knows it can run through this soft defense. Georgia will control the clock on the ground, and it should pull away in the second half. Ole Miss would have to play better on New Year’s Day than it did in the first meeting; that does not seem possible.

When these teams met on Oct. 18 in Athens, Ole Miss played a whale of a game and still lost by eight. Georgia scored on each of its first eight drives before taking a knee to run out the clock on its last drive. A lot has happened since then. The Rebels famously lost their coach, Lane Kiffin, to LSU, and I think that his absence will play a bigger factor in the Sugar Bowl than it did during the first round game against Tulane. Meanwhile the Bulldogs defense has really locked down since that Ole Miss matchup, allowing 11.7 points per game. Georgia has the edge in coaching and in the trenches and is playing its best ball of the season.

The first meeting generated 78 points. Rematches rarely unfold in the same manner as their predecessors. Georgia's last four outings ended with 45, 38, 25 and 35 points. One reason is the Bulldogs' recent reliance on the ground in lieu of QB Gunnar Stockton, who threw for fewer than 200 yards in the last three. Both defenses are formidable. Georgia's 15.9 ppg allowance was second lowest in the SEC, while Ole Miss was fifth best at 19.3. If the favored Bulldogs seize a lead, they can keep the clocking ticking late.

I like what I've seen from this Georgia Bulldogs team during the back half of the season. Their run game has been stellar, and they are playing excellent on defense. This team has the 'big game' experience under Kirby Smart which will prove to be valuable against Ole Miss, who will be trying to win a huge game without former coach Lane Kiffin.

Last time these two teams met earlier in the season, it was a 43-35 shootout thriller. This time around, without Lane Kiffin at the helm for Ole Miss, combined with a Georgia defense that has gotten significantly better down the stretch, it won't be that many points combined. Look for both coaches to play it close to the vest because of the magnitude of the game, being it is a playoff contest.

The "rematch revenge" and "playoff bye" angles both sit with Ole Miss tonight. Yet, we suspect neither might apply, as Georgia has as much big game-experience as any program in the country. The Dawgs are also a bit more punishing when running the ball than in past years, with north-south RB Nate Frazier plus hardscrabble QB Gunner Stockton. In the October 18 win, Georgia rallied from a 35-26 deficit entering the 4th Q to score the last 17 points as ultimate "gamer" Stockton passed for 4 TDs. The Bulldogs also rushed for 221 yards en route to a 510-yard offensive output. We also wonder if this is where the Rebs (and QB Trinidad Chambliss) might begin to miss Lane Kiffin. Play Georgia (Sugar Bowl)

Georgia had eight full possessions in the first meeting and scored points on all eight of them. Ole Miss' defense has been its biggest weakness all year, and will prove to be again here, only this time the offense won't be able to keep up as long.

In its last four games, Georgia has surrendered 10, 3, 9, and 7 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bulldogs ended up winning the National Championship again, though I still lean Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Don’t expect the wild shootout that we saw on Oct. 18. Both defenses will come to play and keep this one in the 40s so we’re getting some value here. Personally, I’m be parlaying Georgia ML with the Under at better than 3-to-2 odds.