News flash: Lane Kiffin is not coaching this game, which means LSU should be getting a field goal at minimum. Even Kiffin might not be able to pull this off. Numerous Tigers have flooded the exits -- mainly on defense, where the best pass rusher, three contributing linebackers and top two backs will bypass this bowl. The offense has been hit not as hard, though the missing include offensive coordinator Joe Sloan. Houston has almost everyone hanging around, chiefly QB Connor Weigman. The Cougars own a massive motivational edge, what with LSU eager to turn the tattered page, and get a de facto home game to boot.

Bowl games are often decided by who wants to be there. Houston is playing for a 10-win season in their home city (NRG Stadium is 10 mins from campus). LSU is playing with an interim coach, a backup QB, and a depleted roster. Houston QB Conner Weigman (64.6 QBR) is a legit starter and confirmed to play. LSU starting backup QB Michael Van Buren Jr. (31.9 QBR) against a complex defense is a recipe for 3-and-outs. Even if LSU moves the ball, they are ranked #108 in Red Zone scoring with their starters. McKenzie Agnello will start at Center after Demetrius Hunter left the Cougars. At New Mexico, Agnello posted a strong PFF run-blocking grade (73.8), which ranked 9th among all FBS centers that season.

The more I look at this game, the more I like Houston. LSU already had three starters opt out and I expect more to come. Meanwhile, Willie Fritz and Houston are thrilled to be in the Texas Bowl after winning four games last season. The Cougars also get the luxury of playing a bowl game 20 minutes from campus with an excited fanbase that already bought out Houston's allotment of tickets. How many LSU fans do you think care about the Texas Bowl? How many LSU fans even know the Tigers are in the Texas Bowl? Houston has a young team, so I don't expect many opt outs. This is a case where motivation will play a big part in the outcome. Lay the -3.