Maybe it was the heavy rain last week in Honololu that pushed the Aztecs off course. Whatever, it was an uncharacteristic effort from what had been the MW's best team. Now SDSU is back home at Snapdragon, where the Aztecs have roughed up everybody this season and pitched two of their three shutouts in 2025. SDSU has only allowed 31 points across four home games, less than 8 ppg. Without QB Maddux Madsen, Boise looks ill-equipped to dent the Aztec defense...especially as backup Max Cutforth couldn't throw the ball five yards past the line of scrimmage in the loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, as the Broncos become completely one-dimensional minus Madsen. Play SDSU

Never mind San Diego's stalwart defense, ranked first in the MWC. Forget the projected rain. Any game involving Boise State does not warrant such a low total. The Broncos have eclipsed 50 points by themselves twice and reached the 40s three times. They operate fast, with the 16th most average snaps per game. San Diego State is no offensive slouch, ranked mid-rank in the league for scoring. The Aztecs landed in the 40s on consecutive weeks in midseason. The defenses and the weather are unlikely to conspire to deliver a score this low.

The Aztecs don't have much time to wallow in a poor showing out at Hawaii, because a huge showdown with another Mountain West title contender is on deck with Boise State. The Broncos have had an off week to rebound after losing starting quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury in the loss to Fresno State, but I don't think the market has adjusted enough to his absence. The Aztecs have been humming at home this year, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread, so this looks like a get-right spot.