If Air Force makes one of its patented rallies in the second half of the season, it will arguably be spearheaded by Liam Szarka. In recent weeks, Szarka has emerged as the next dynamic Falcon option pilot, posting big stats booth on the ground and in the air (200+ YP in each of last three games!) as a typical Troy Calhoun QB is supposed to do. The Force has scored 30+ in four straight games...but has lost each. Still, last week's close loss at unbeaten Navy suggests the breakthrough could some very soon. UNLV's 5-0 SU mark is mostly due to a very suspect schedule to this point, and one that will start getting much harder on Saturday afternoon. Play Air Force

UNLV is 5-0 on the season, and they face the worst defense in college football, with 1-4 Air Force, which allows 476 yards per game. UNLV's edge is not turning the ball over and creating turnovers, as they're No. 2 in the nation at a +8 turnover margin. UNLV scores 35 points per game, and Air Force allows 37 points per game. UNLV comes off two road wins, and their last home win was against UCLA, which now proves to be impressive, and it was in front of 36,000 fans. I expect a big crowd and a home edge, which we haven't been able to say in the past. UNLV to cover.

I don't believe this will last very long at under -7 if not a fair amount higher so we will grab this Mountain West matchup on CBS Sports Network next Saturday now. Under new coach Dan Mullen, UNLV looks like the best Group of 5 team thus far at 5-0 and all but four of those by at least a TD. Air Force routed FCS school Bucknell in the season opener but hasn't won since. The defense is allowing 44.0 PPG in the four-game skid. The Rebs have scored at least 30 in every game. Our model has UNLV by three TDs.