Penn State has gotten some grief being 0-3 ATS, but they’ve been favored by 41+ points in all three games … cut it some slack. Oregon has been far more tested with three Power Four wins, making this a major step up in class for the hosts. The Nittany Lions do benefit from an off week, and James Franklin has surely been holding back his playbook. Penn State seems to always lose in this spot; Franklin is 4-20 vs. top 10 teams, 3-11 when in the top 10 himself. That’s bad. The lone huge question for Oregon is how Dante Moore will play in an extremely difficult road spot. Given the hook and my expectation of a close game, let’s lean with the visitors.

Oregon is 4-0 on the season and missed covering two games just barely. Penn State comes in at 3-0, but they haven't covered any game, and they've all been at home. That's why the spread is so low against Oregon, which returns only seven starters from last year's team. Only two starters returned on offense, including a new quarterback. Penn State returns 15 starters from last year, seven of them on offense, including quarterback Drew Allar, and also four of his five starters on the offensive line. Penn State gets at least 5.5 for home field, so they’re saying Oregon is -3 on a neutral field. The bet is on the quarterback, and my money is on Penn State at home.

I don't know which way this line will go but I like Penn State to win the game, so I'll grab the Nittany Lions on the ML now. Oregon is a very good team but I love this spot for Penn State at home coming off a bye. Oregon QB Dante Moore will be making his first start in a hostile environment against one of CFB's top defenses. James Franklin has the horses this year. If he loses this game at home, I'll never trust him in a big game again. My advice is to take Penn State -3 or less or on the ML.