We missed the best of a number that opened inside two full TDs but there's a reason the spread moved. The downtrodden Cardinal haves cored just one offensive TD this season and the only reason last week's game against BYU provided an ATS sweat is because the Cougars were inefficient on offense. Eagles QB Dylan Lonergan has thrown for 658 yards and 8 TDs and we expect he'll generate enough offense for BC to roll.

Stanford is rancid these days, but Boston College played overtime on the road last Saturday night -- a Michigan State win thankfully -- then flew back East for a few days before turning around and flying across the country. Tough. And both starting cornerbacks have been ruled out for this one. The Cardinal can't get 16 points in their home opener vs. a beaten-up East Coast team? Our model has Stanford at 22 points.

Boston College just got through playing a double-overtime night game in the Midwest. Now it must cross the country for a crazy kickoff at 10:30 p.m. on the Eagles' body clock (7:30 PT). Stanford has been mostly lousy at the start of new coach Frank Reich's term but benefits from getting its first home date at a favorable time of day. B.C., usually on the receiving end of the point spread, has not yielded double-figures on the road in four seasons. As shaky as the Cardinal have been, the defense has allowed just four touchdowns (along with a boatload of field goals). A reasonably low-scoring game should lead to a cover.