The Hawkeyes have won 7 of the past 9 in this rivalry, though the Cyclones have managed wins in 2 of the past 3. However, Iowa State hasn't won at home in this series since 2011 and each of its past 5 wins against its in-state rival have come by 3 or fewer points. We'll grab the value-laden hook on the low key number and look for another tight, grinding affair.

Even though they beat Kansas State in Ireland, I wasn't overly impressed with what I saw from Iowa State in Week 0. As per most years, Iowa should be stronger on the lines of scrimmage and I'm bullish on their transfer QB, Mark Gronowski. I'll gladly take the 3.5 points and even pick the outright upset. Iowa 20, Iowa State 17.

Iowa's offense isn't as horrible as it looked last week against Albany. Not that it'll be good! Iowa State's defense has shown almost no ability to pressure opposing QBs to start the season and has allowed some explosive plays. I also think the Cyclones offense could pose matchup issues for the Hawkeyes' defense.

Rocco Becht hasn't thrown a pick in 84 attempts, but the Cyclones' win over Kansas State was misleading, as they were outgained by 70 yards in Week 0. Iowa played conservatively in its opener against Albany, passing for just 48 yards and relying on RB Xavier Williams, who rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown. They were saving their best plays for this matchup. Quarterback Mark Gronowski brings valuable experience to Iowa, collecting 49 wins, two national titles at South Dakota State, and the ability to run for first downs. Last year, Iowa's only home loss was against ISU, despite leading by 13 points. The Cyclones converted a 54-yard FG with 6 seconds remaining. With Iowa's strong lines of scrimmage, getting 3.5 points feels right.

Iowa only allowed 177 yards to Albany last week in a 34-7 win and debuted a new quarterback from South Dakota State, Mark Gronowski, but his stats look like every other Iowa quarterback, completing eight passes for 44 yards. Now they get Iowa State, who's already won and covered twice, and they've beaten Iowa twice in three years. Iowa only allowed 17 points per game last season, and that'll be right around what they allow this game, but their quarterback needs to show more to win against Iowa State. Maybe coach Kirk Ferentz is playing games by not showing off his quarterback in the first game, but it looked like every quarterback Ferentz has had in his 26 years as Iowa coach. Iowa State wins.