The X-Factor here is Byrum Brown, who could be an absolute game-changer in the Josh Heupel system that USF head coach Alex Golesh brings to the program. That said, Boise State is the better overall team here, and the Broncos should have a significant advantage on the line of scrimmage. This one could go back and forth, but in the end I like Boise State by a TD.

South Florida will no doubt be improved this season, but I'm not expecting a significant drop-off from Boise State. Losing Ashton Jeanty will certainly be felt at times, but the Broncos return plenty of production and experience at quarterback and on the offensive line. I make this game -7.5, which is much closer to the opening number of -8.5, and I'm willing to play it now that we've crossed the key numbers of 7 and 6.

Seeing as we can no longer get a full TD on the spread, we're going to take a shot outright on a Bulls club that has a lot going for them: One of the best dual-threat QBs in the country in Byrum Brown, an underrated home-field edge and 90-degree temps the Broncos aren't accustomed to playing in. It's also a bigger game for the profile of the program.

USF has hinted at breakthroughs the past two seasons under HC Alex Golesh, who moved from Josh Heupel’s staff in 2023 and installed a similar uptempo attack in Tampa. The Bulls have won bowls each of the past two seasons, progressing to the postseason last year mostly behind capable backup QB Bryce Archie, on in relief of the dynamic Byrum Brown, who burst upon the scene in 2023 when he and LSU’s Heisman winner Jayden Daniels were the only QBS in the country to pass for more than 3000 yards and rush for more than 800 yards. We’ll know in a few weeks if Golesh has a legit contender as Sunshine State grudge matches at Florida and Miami are on deck. Play USF.

This line has moved in our favor from -6.5 to -6, but we don't think it will move much further and could possibly go back in the other direction. Boise State was the Group of 5's representative in the inaugural 12-team playoff last season, and while the Broncos don't return Ashton Jeanty, they bring back almost every other key piece. Boise State has a history of developing elite running backs, and we believe that the Broncos can somewhat replace his lost production between Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod and redshirt freshman Sire Gaines. USF's defense ranked 99th in the country at nearly 30 points allowed per game. South Florida was also just 1-4 ATS at home in FBS games. Lay the spread on Boise.

Boise State finished 12-2 last year, 7-0 in the Mountain West conference, and they come in this year without their star running back, but they have 13 starters back from last year, including quarterback Maddox Madsen. The thing I like most about this team is that they have four of their five starters returning on the offensive line and also the tight end. The basic front of Boise State is intact, which is going to give South Florida some trouble. Also on defense, their entire secondary returns with all seniors and one junior. They're going to be a tough team to beat this season, especially for South Florida. Boise State to cover on the road.