Notre Dame has been our golden goose (no pun intended) in the College Football Playoff, but its magic runs out Monday night. At full strength, the Fighting Irish cover this number; however, they are an injury-depleted squad that had just enough to get past Penn State but not enough to go 60 minutes with the talent on Ohio State’s roster Monday night. The Buckeyes have the sport’s best wide receivers and defensive coordinator, a run game that matches up and the advantage at quarterback. They clearly used the Michigan loss as an inflection point. Even if Marcus Freeman’s crew holds it down in the first half, Ohio State should be able to build a second-half lead and hold onto it.

The last two times Notre Dame in Ohio State played they stayed under their total and those totals were way higher at 56 and 58.5. This total is 45.5. You have two of the best defenses in college football facing each other: the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring defenses in college football and both will hold each other down for a while. I think it'll be a close game for the first two quarters and then in the second half Ohio State's offense prevails but it keeps the game under, something like 27-13.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish were 14-1 this season but more amazingly they were 13-2 against the spread and have covered 11 straight games including all three playoff games. The Ohio State Buckeyes were 13-2 and 9-6 ATS but their last three games following the loss to Michigan took them up to another level and made them 8.5 over a team like Notre Dame. The main battle of this game will be the No. 1 defense of Ohio State which allows 251 yards per game against the Irish running game that goes for 5.8 yards per attempt. Ohio State is No. 1 in points allowed at 12.2 and the Irish are No. 2 allowing 14.3. Buckeyes win and cover.

Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard and receiver Jeremiah Smith thrive against man defense; Howard has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions against man this season. That bodes well against a Notre Dame defense that plays more man (57% of snaps) than any team in the country. When the Irish have the ball, how will the makeshift offensive line (left tackle Anthonie Knapp is out, and right guard Rocco Spindler is battling an ankle injury) hold up against the Ohio State defensive line and linebackers? The Irish face a formidable test against a Buckeyes defensive that has generated 16 sacks over the three playoff games. Irish Team Total Under 14.5 (+140) is my best bet, but I'll take Ohio State to cover.

It's worth mentioning that lesser Notre Dame teams gave Ohio State all it could handle the past two seasons, covering both times. The Irish were also one play away from victory last season at South Bend. Both the 2022 (21-10) and 2023 (17-14) scorelines suggest Al Golden's defense can keep OSU in check, and those were Buckeye sides with CJ Stroud in 2022 and Marvin Harrison Jr each of the last two seasons. This is a better Notre Dame team with another top ten Golden defense and a big-play offense detonated by Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard. Note the Irish have covered 12 straight pointspreads this season and are 23-5 vs. the spread under Marcus Freeman since last year. Play Notre Dame.

Two things that really show up in title games that can have an effect are a team's ability to run the ball and a defense. Both teams are elite in both categories, which will make this a tight game. Also, it's a one game season so expect some tight nerves to play a factor as well and cause this one to be called much tighter because of the little room for error.

Ohio State’s increased playoff spread market nearly cost backers against Texas. A stout goal line stand that turned into a defensive touchdown saved the spread. Yet, oddsmakers could not give a lower point spread versus the Irish on the pre-established number against Texas. Notre Dame likely will go down but look for the same resiliency they have showcased time and time again. They’ve also covered five straight and ten out of their last eleven games. Grab the points.

The Buckeyes defense is absolutely smothering with few weaknesses. They can attack the QB and smother in coverage. Not sure the Irish can move the ball here much at all. Ohio State explosive offensive potential scares me off the under in this game. I don't see 3 TDs here and I don't think the Irish can settle for trying a bunch of FGs if they are chasing this game as I anticipate.

Against the Buckeyes' top-ranked defense, I have a hard time seeing Notre Dame's offense having much success. On the other side of the ball, I don't see Ohio State's offense playing as well as they did against Tennessee and Oregon. Expect a methodical effort like we saw against Texas, considering both the Longhorns and Fighting Irish defenses are also top-five units nationally. Plus, in the two matchups between these two teams in 2022 and 2023, both won by Ohio State, each only featured 31 total points. Buckeyes and under are the combo play. Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 13.

Ohio State was my preseason pick to win it all and I'm not changing my mind here. They are the most talented team in college football, and while their loss to Michigan on November 30th left plenty of questions, all doubt has been removed thus far during this postseason. Sure, Texas gave them a run in the Cotton Bowl, but a banged up Notre Dame team won't keep it close for more than three quarters. While this is far from the most confident pick I've made this season, I'll roll with Ohio State to win by multiple scores and capture their third National Championship of the 2000s.