LSU at full strength probably wins this fairly easily, but how excited will the Tigers be to play a lower-tier bowl in Houston down starting receivers Kyren Lacy and CJ Daniels, tight end Mason Taylor, offensive linemen Will Campbell and Emery Jones, and safeties Major Burns and Sage Ryan? Baylor won its final six to likely save Coach Dave Aranda's job and it just feels like a team trying to build momentum for 2025 with very few opt-outs or transfer guys.

The original favored team is now the underdog because of mass opt-outs. LSU was giving points while at nearly full strength. Meantime, the Tigers have said sayonara to four primary pass receivers, including the top two, plus assorted pass protectors, which has flipped the odds. Esteemed QB Garrett Nussmeier will miss his pals. Baylor owns the momentum, having closed with six wins by an average of nearly 15 points. Bears coach Dave Aranda will be locked in as LSU's former defensive coordinator. Motivation in bowls is challenging to gauge, but LSU's motor might not be fully running in this third-tier postseason game.

This line has completely flipped as Baylor opened getting 3.5. The Tigers are dealing with injuries to their offensive line, Garrett Neussmeier is banged up along with the two backup quarterbacks. Baylor ended the year on a six-game win streak and their defensive held their final two opponents to less than 20 points each. The Tigers are a one-dimensional team with attacking through the air as their run game hasn’t been successful for much of the year.