It didn't get much attention, but Liberty fell victim to what was likely the biggest upset of the year when they lost to Kennesaw State last week. The win was the Owls first of the season and first against a FBS opponent. Prior to that game, Liberty had been thrown around as a potential CFP party crasher. I believe the Flames simply looked ahead to this game, and this spread represents a massive overreaction to what happened last week. Liberty is at home here and Jax State QB Tyler Huff is banged up. I like the Flames by 3+.

Feel like this is great value on Liberty at home, a number unthinkable this time last week, really, until the then-unbeaten Flames somehow lost at winless Kennesaw State to fall out of a first-place tie in Conference USA. Probably the upset of the entire season. Lose again here, and the Flames are facing a major uphill challenge just to get back to the title game. I simply think they were looking ahead to this game when facing KSU. Co-first place Jacksonville State has been pummeling people in a four-game winning streak but also against a really weak slate. Last year, Liberty won by 18 at JSU. Definitely expecting closer Wednesday, but this number feels light.