Wow, very little respect for Duke and love that we are over the key number of +11 (31-20, etc.). The Mustangs didn't cover this number at either Nevada or Louisville, and Duke is certainly better than the former and perhaps as good as the latter. The Blue Devils also had an extra day to prepare after beating Florida State on Oct. 18. Duke is 13-1 in its past four and that lone loss was by a touchdown last September to No. 11 Notre Dame.

This pick is all about -- well, mostly about -- scheduling. SMU is saddled with its third straight away game. The Mustangs have not played at home since Sept. 28. Last week's was on the West Coast. Duke's defense, ranked 17th in FBS and tops in tackles for losses, is a secondary factor. It should keep SMU's 11th-ranked offense from going off. These 6-1 teams are not created equal, with SMU clearly superior, but the circumstances favor the Blue Devils.

There is too much familiarity in this matchup to think that either team is going to blow out the other. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee was the offensive coordinator for Duke coach Manny Diaz when both were at Miami, and as if Diaz -- a good defensive mind -- didn't already know what SMU to do himself he hired SMU's old offensive coordinator, Jonathan Brewer, for his first staff with the Blue Devils. Duke's defensive playmaking drags teams down to their level, and I think that group comes up big in keeping the Mustangs from ever running away with the game.