This feels like a volatile yet value-rich spot in which to back the Tigers at night as a home underdog in what is also a revenge spot. Ole Miss rebounded from an embarrassing upset loss to Kentucky with an inspired effort in a 27-3 thumping of South Carolina. The Tigers have won five straight since an opening loss to USC, though a leaky defense has sometimes still been an issue. Even so, we’ll put our faith in Brian Kelly’s history of late-blossoming teams and play the Tigers to get some payback for last year’s 55-49 loss in Oxford in which they blew a nine-point lead in the final 5 minutes.

Ole Miss has put up very impressive defensive numbers this year, but this team hasn't faced an offense in the same stratosphere as this LSU team. This game has the potential to be high-scoring, but while I don't hate the over, it's hard to pass up the chance to take LSU getting points at home at night when they've been dominant in that scenario for years.

This game sets up to be a chaotic back-and-forth between two of the best passing attacks in the country, and in that scenario I like the home team in LSU. I particularly like that Brian Kelly is 12-0 in night games in Tiger Stadium (and 16-1 overall at home), and that the home team in this rivalry has won four straight outright and covered the spread in nine of the last 10 meetings.

In games with totals of 60 or more points, unders are hitting at a 63% clip this season. Ole Miss has the best defense in the nation against the rush, 3rd in yards per play and 3rd in points per game allowed (7.5). LSU's offense is good but I'm buying this Ole Miss defense as one of the nation's best this season. This total seems at least five points higher than it should be as I see it. Ole Miss 30, LSU 23.