This play is distasteful because I'm a Canes backer, but they never win bowl games and have lost about 10 starters to the portal/injury/draft. They will start Jacurri Brown at QB, and he hasn't taken a snap in 2023 -- and then likely will transfer out himself. If he gets hurt, UM might have to pull someone out of a Zamboni or something like an emergency goalie. Rutgers has lost very few players, hasn't won a bowl since 2014 (or finished with a winning record since then) and should have a significant fan (and weather) advantage at Yankee Stadium. Greg Schiano-led teams are 5-1-1 ATS in bowl games.

The line has flipped in this one for good reason and instead of laying the short number, I'm going to take the money line. Both teams have some issues with the portal and opt outs, but Miami has more issues at key positions in this regard. Add to that Miami constantly underwhelms yet somehow continues to get moderate respect in the market. Miami is unlikely to be motivated for this one, but Rutgers is in a spot with their program to be highly motivated in front of what will feel like a home crowd.

Ten usual Miami starters will sit out for sundry reasons, and a third-string QB, Jaccuri Brown, gets the call after not playing all season. Rutgers' unbending defense should give Brown and the unit fits. The Scarlet Knights will need to score some, and a half-dozen Hurricanes sitting out on defense will aid the cause. The mismatch, in a bowl context, is on the sidelines. UM's Mario Cristobal is a fine coach but stands 2-4-1 against the spread in the postseason. Greg Schiano, by contrast, is 5-1-1 ATS and 5-2 straight-up.

It’s clear at this point that Rutgers is motivated to play in this one after star running back and Big Ten rushing leader Kyle Monangai decided to return to the program. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have been decimated by opt-outs and the transfer portal and will be turning to third-string quarterback Jacurri Brown to take the snaps. It’s hard to trust Miami in normal circumstances, much less in a game that is so loaded with question marks.