Ah the bowls. You are in trouble if you take a lead bigger than a touchdown, apparently. Still smarting over Old Dominion, honestly, and it has affected my entire week. USF seems to have all the momentum here as a program on the rise under a first-year coach with essentially no opt outs and a travel advantage with the short jaunt across the state to Del Boca Vista. The Bulls offense is terrific ... defense not so much. Syracuse is in transition with a coaching change and using a third-string QB (although teams using backup QBs are killing it so far) in redshirt freshman Braden Davis, who has taken 57 career snaps, and some Wildcat with tight end Dan Villari.

The Bulls seek their first bowl victory in six years and first winning season since 2018. Although their hapless defense is a concern, their program morale is in a much better place than Syracuse. the Orange already fired coach Dino Babers and QB Garrett Shrader is shelved with an injury. South Florida, which won just one game last year, can finish off a respectable first season under Alex Golesh with a bowl win before its home supporters.

Syracuse is down to its third-string QB, a welcome break for USF, whose pass defense has been porous all season. With RBs coach Mike Lynch calling plays in lieu of departed O-coordinator Jason Beck, figure on the Orange to be more ground-oriented than usual. They even used a TE to take snaps in the most recent game. As potent as the Bulls' offense has been, it calls considerably more runs than passes. This total shot up into the 60s, then gravity kicked in, bringing it down it a tad lower than the original number. Still, it's the way to go.

Give first-year HC Alex Golesh some credit for steering USF into a bowl in his first try after the wreckage of the Jeff Scott regime. It wasn't because of defense that got the Bulls bowl eligible, rather an often-electric offense sparked by dual-threat frosh QB Byrum Brown, who accounted for 34 TDs this season. The defense, however, gave up 49 or more points on four different occasions, which might present an opening for the 'Cuse. Though between coaches and without QB Garrett Shrader (shoulder), the 'Cuse showed much ingenuity in November when unveiling some Wildcat with TE Dan Villari, a jarring runner who delivered good results, including 154 YR in the win over Pitt. Play 'Cuse-USF "Over" (Boca Raton Bowl)

Yes, I am aware that USF was one of the worst defensive teams in college football this season. I also know that both of these teams rely on running the football to get their respective offenses going, and Syracuse will either be playing a freshman, who had one completion during the regular season, or a converted tight end at quarterback. I do expect to see some explosive plays in this one, but I have this game total finishing in the low 50's.

Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader will miss the Boca Raton Bowl after undergoing surgery for a nagging shoulder injury which means that freshman Braden Davis will likely get his shot. Davis completed the only pass he attempted in 2023 – and it was for a loss of six yards. The quarterback questions, coupled with the coaching transition, will allow the Bulls to keep this one close … and perhaps spring the upset.