Alabama has been winning behind an increasingly stout defense that has allowed 21 or fewer points to its last 6 opponents. This will be a tough ask against LSU's top-ranked scoring offense (47 ppg) but the Tigers have been torching the scoreboard against meager opposition. There should be just enough defense in this one to send it Under the posted total.

Coming into this game the LSU Tigers have the confidence of already beating Alabama last season. Yes, new season, new team, but this LSU offense is much better than last year's, and QB Jayden Daniels is playing at a Heisman Trophy level. I don't see Bama's offense being able to keep pace, despite a shaky LSU Defense.

Part II of the Nick Saban Revenge Tour after Bama took care of Tennessee before last week's bye. Forgive Saban, however, for visions of Tiger QB Jayden Daniels becoming unstoppable in the 4th Q and OT last November in Baton Rouge when LSU pulled out a 32-31 win that proved the tiebreaker in the SEC West. Daniels (25 TDP and only 3 picks this campaign) has been displaying some of that magic again in recent weeks as he begins to appear on Heisman radar into November, but whether he can compensate for what has been a downgraded Tiger defense (ranks 88th after 40th last season) remains to be seen. Must also note the eye-opening LSU "over" trend (now 15-1 last 16!).

If LSU was fully healthy I'd give the Tigers a better shot of knocking off Alabama, but there are some real injury concerns on defense that I think are going to make it easier for Jalen Milroe to have one of his better games of the season. This is also the best defense that Jayden Daniels and the high-flying LSU offense have played all year, and I think that shows with a big drop-off in effectiveness.

The Tigers have hit the over in all eight games this season and 12 straight dating back to 2022. Only once has the winning team in an LSU game this season scored under 41 points. I think both teams reach 30 and while I want to pick the Tigers in an upset, I'll stick with the Crimson Tide at home. Alabama 34, LSU 31.

LSU's offense is special but its defense is awful -- and missing a few key guys -- and that figures to be the difference Saturday. Never bet against Nick Saban in Week 1 or off a bye as the sign of great coaching is dominating with extra preparation and the Tide usually do. This is also a payback spot for Bama off last year's last-second loss and the Tide are 21-2 in a payback spot like this. The only two times they lost in back-to-back games against the same opponent under Saban was vs. LSU (2010-11) and Ole Miss (2014-15). Saban hasn't lost to the same quarterback in consecutive years since Purdue's Drew Brees beat him twice during his tenure at Michigan State.