This line keeps going up, and I don't understand. I realize BYU got blitzed on the road at TCU, but Texas redshirt freshman QB Maalik Murphy will be making his first career start and I expect coach Steve Sarkisian will be very conservative with his play-calling against a Cougars defense that ranks fifth in the country in interceptions (11). Expect to see a lot of the Longhorns' ground game. Meanwhile, the Texas defense is decimated by injuries at all three levels. With a huge game against Kansas State looming next week, I expect the Longhorns will just try to get out Saturday injury-free. So even if this game gets out of hand, BYU still has an chance at a back-door cover. Two units.

As long as running back Jonathan Brooks is in the lineup, I think Maalik Murphy is going to be able to lead the offense to similar levels of production, especially against a BYU defense that is dead last in the Big 12 in total offense. Look for Steve Sarkisian to scheme up a couple of explosive plays to build confidence in his new starter, and the Longhorns win by 20+ over the course of four quarters.

BYU comes off its best game of the season, a 13-point win over Texas Tech, and catches Texas at an opportune time. QB Quinn Evers (shoulder) is out for awhile. While Longhorns Nation would love to see freshman Arch Manning, the likely stand-in is Maalik Murphy, who has mopped up in three games during his redshirt freshman year. Texas fell to Oklahoma two Saturdays ago, then dodged an upset bid by Houston. The table is set for a BYU cover.