Air Force is playing like a team who has a chance to crash the New Year's Six bowl game this season. Even with a new starting QB in Jensen Jones, the offense will still find a way to make plays. Defensively is where the major advantage is in this game, heavily favoring the Falcons.

No reason to think this one becomes a shootout, even with the Force now flying in the rare air of the national rankings and looking like a good bet to become the Group of Five's rep in the New Year's Six (which teams draws the short straw and has to face the Falcons at the Fiesta Bowl?). But Navy isn't going to be fooled by Troy Calhoun's option, and with Falcs QB Zac Larrier out, the Force won't have any easier time of extending the margin than last year's 13-10 nailbiter. Play Navy

Navy isn't going to be fooled by Troy Calhoun's option, but the Mids' run-run-run-punt offense that looks a lot like it did (though maybe not as good) as the option as operated by Ken Niumatalolo, until Brian Newberry took charge this season, will be hard-pressed to stay within earshot. Note that there were only 111 plays run in this clash a year ago, typical for Commander-in-Chief games that usually feature 25-35 fewer snaps because the clock continues to run. News of Force QB Zac Larrier being out this week suggests this one might stay even lower-scoring than we originally thought. Play Air Force-Navy Under

The under is 43-10-1 in games between service academies since the 2005 season. With rule changes and schematic changes, this trend will come to an end eventually, but not here. Not with Air Force being down its starting QB.

An injury to Zac Larrier only reinforces what has been the most significant trend in college football betting: service academy unders. Because both teams run the ball the clock continues to run as well, and because both defenses face the option in practice every day they are better-versed to stop it than anyone in the country.

Unbeaten Air Force's dream season has taken a hit. QB Zac Larrier, out for awhile with an injured knee, is not only the lone Falcon to throw a pass this season, he's No. 2 in rushing. Backup Jensen Jones has tossed a single pass in his long college career. If Navy can carry over the momentum of last week's defensive gem -- a shutout of Charlotte -- the Academy will struggle to ring up enough points for a cover.

Air Force is the superior team but playing only its second true road game, with a 10 a.m. Mountain Time kickoff and sans starting QB Zac Larrier for the first time this season due to injury. He's the team's No. 2 rusher and actually has made some throws this year, which is news for a service academy. The teams run essentially the same offense so in theory it should be a close game (may not even see 11 total points scored; I will ponder the total later this week), but Navy seems to have a few intangibles in its favor.