The Bruins comes off their upset of Washington State. Their offense has been more efficient than the Beavers, however, Oregon State plays at a different level at home. The Beavers defense held Utah to under 198 yards of total offense and seven points two weeks ago and while Utah doesn’t have the best offense, that’s still impressive. The Beavers are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 conference games, winning by an average of nine points.

The learning curve for touted Bruins frosh QB Dante Moore seems to have flattened in recent weeks as Moore apparently channels his inner James Winston circa 2019 with the Bucs, tossing a pair of pick-sixes in UCLA’s last two games. What Chip Kelly does have, however, is the best defense in Westwood since the days of Ken Norton, Jr and Carnell Lake when Terry Donahue was still riding high in the 80s, as the Bruins’ current No. 5 rank in total defense does harken back a couple of generations. But Moore’s inexperience already cost UCLA once at Salt Lake City and not sure he’s ready to deal with rowdy Corvallis, either, where the locals are especially incensed at early Pac-12 defectors like the Bruins.

First meeting between the schools since 2019 and probably last for quite a long time. I don't really understand why our model and others have this as quite high scoring. Maybe I'm missing something, but Oregon State hasn't allowed more than nine points in a home game yet. UCLA hasn't allowed more than 17 this year and is No. 3 nationally against the run. Bruins freshman QB Dante Moore has really struggled in B2B games. The Beavers have been really good offensively but hugely rely on the run. It's October in Corvallis (not that I've been there nor plan to), so weather likely will be an issue. I may come back and play this on the side.

The under has cashed in all of UCLA's games because the Bruins' defense has been much better than expected while the offense, led by freshman quarterback Dante Moore, has been less explosive than last year's squad so far this season. Oregon State is a tough spot to play, and the Beavs' defense has been much better at home than on the road.

Since the start of the 2021 season, Oregon State is the best home team against the spread in college football, with a 14-1 record (also 14-1 straight up). The Beavers were in a similar spot two weeks ago, facing a Utah team with a young QB but an excellent defense...and they dominated. I expect nearly a carbon copy of that result (and would similarly lean towards the under as well). Oregon State 27, UCLA 17.