Given USC's absences at WR and OL along with Caleb Williams' ailing hamstring, there's plenty of reason to believe Tulane is a live (short) dog in this game. The Green Wave are fully stocked. However, there is a drastic blue-chip talent disparity in this game -- particularly in the trenches where it may prove difficult for Tulane to get pressure on Williams and knock him off his spot. If he's able to plant and distribute the ball, USC will be able to match any score even if its defense struggles as usual. Lincoln Riley is just 1-3 in bowl games with his lone win against a team that played its entire second string; however, his three losses were all in College Football Playoff semifinals. Back USC at the small number in a key game to conclude Year 1 under Riley.

Let's concede two facts. Tulane is less impacted by opt-outs and, with Southern Cal disappointed at missing out on the playoffs, wields a motivational edge. Still, the talent disparity overrides those issues. After all, USC sends out Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams at QB. While WR Jordan Addison's absence will be felt, Williams has plenty of targets left. With two O-linemen passing on this bowl, he might need to scramble, so lucky for USC that his ailing hamstring apparently has healed. Tulane earns the overachievement award this season but has not confronted the talent unleashed by the Trojans.

Cotton Bowl from Dallas. Tulane is in the midst of one of the best seasons in school history and will be thrilled to be playing in this game. After USC lost in the Pac-12 title game and a shot at the playoff, I'm not sure how much the Trojans will care, and they have lost a few key guys to opt out/portal. However, QB and Heisman winner Caleb Williams will be good to go (guarantee he wouldn't play if draft eligible) after a hamstring injury in that conference championship loss, and USC is simply so much more talented overall. Were this a few points higher, maybe I take the Green Wave but not under a field goal.

The Caleb Williams situation is why this line is deflated, but the truth is that it won't matter all that much. If Williams isn't able to go, Miller Moss is perfectly capable of taking charge of a Trojans offense that is still dangerous even with some personnel issues. The motivation of each team is always a concern in these games, and there's no doubt that Tulane would love to beat USC in the Green Wave's first New Year's Six appearance. However, USC's defense has been opportunistic all year and will force a couple of late mistakes to make it a double-digit win.