It has been an incredible season for TCU filled with come-from-behind victories, eye-catching theatrics and gutsy play. The problem for the Horned Frogs? Despite running through the Big 12, they have yet to play a defense anywhere near the caliber of the one Michigan presents. The Wolverines are beastly at all three levels and offer a punishing offense that should wear down the Frogs in the second half. In the history of the College Football Playoff, semifinal games have been decided by an average of 21 points. And those margins frequently come because of a blue-chip talent disparities. Look for Michigan to limit TCU's explosive plays, dominate in the trenches and pull away in the second half. I like this up to -8 but would buy -7 (-115) if available.

The Under has hit in eight of Michigan's 13 games due largely to the fact that its defense has been the most consistent unit in the Big Ten throughout the season. That won't change now that we are in the postseason. In fact, that might not be what TCU wants either. The Under has hit in four of its last five games due in large part to the unfounded notion that Big 12 football is basketball on grass. This will be like a heavyweight fight with both teams feeling each other out before throwing some punches.

The TCU defense struggled to stop the run down the stretch, giving up big games on the ground to Baylor and Kansas State in the Big 12 title. On Saturday the Horned Frogs face a dominant Michigan offensive line and running game. I also think TCU's offensive line will have trouble with the Wolverines' front seven. My model says that Michigan covers almost 60% of the time, so you're getting good value at this number.

Michigan went a perfect 13-0 and had just two games decided by seven points or fewer while dominating Penn State, 41-17, and Ohio State, 45-23. Now the Wolverines have to finish the deal against TCU, which comes from the Big 12, a conference that has struggled in the bowls so far. But Michigan has lost its last five bowls; TCU has won four of its last five. I’m taking TCU because of an edge with quarterback Max Duggan and the receiving corps. These guys don't give up and are ready for a close game since they've been playing them weekly since early October. I took the points with TCU.