It’s going to be a chilly 27 degrees in Boise for the game, and San Jose State comes in having lost its last three road games. This spread is cheap by two points for the Spartans, but I’m still taking the points with Eastern Michigan in part because San Jose State has been overrated. The Spartans haven't covered in their last six. Eastern Michigan has covered its last five games – four as underdogs – and won its last three. Eagles senior QB Taylor Powell was spectacular in his last two starts (six touchdowns, zero interceptions), and I like him to lead the way. Eastern Michigan plays in this weather all the time; San Jose State not so much. I took the points with the Eagles.

Potato Bowl from Boise; Two coaches who should be at a Power 5 schools sooner rather than later in EMU's Chris Creighton and SJSU's Brent Brennan. The SL Model has San Jose State winning by 16, and I think that's way off but clearly do believe the Spartans will win on the blue turf in Boise. The Spartans have played a much tougher schedule and routed MAC school Western Michigan 34-6 earlier this year. EMU beat WMU 45-23 if you believe common opponents matter. SJSU has a +12 turnover margin, which is best in the Mountain West and good for fifth in the country. The Spartans only have six turnovers (4 INT, 2 fumbles), with a scant five on offense. They are also quite good against the run, and EMU relies heavily on running back Samson Evans (1,084 yards, 13 TDs).

The Eagles get to practice on the same exact surface (field turf) and in extreme cold weather. San Jose has no such advantage. I love playing teams that lost their bowl game by 30-plus the previous year. (Eastern Michigan lost by 36 to Liberty.) The Eagles are 4-0-1 against-the-spread on field turf, while the Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries. Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS as an underdog, while San Jose State is 3-6 ATS as chalk. The Eagles are 8-1 straight-up and 6-2 ATS when playing on Tuesday. Eastern Michigan is ranked No. 25 in special teams, while San Jose State is ranked dead last (131st) at Football Outsiders. Take the points.