I think the number actually caught up to UConn after its unreal rise from the bottom of the ratings. Marshall's ninth-ranked defense, which allows 291 YPG, will be the difference in this game. The spread should be closer to -15. I fell off the UConn bandwagon when the Huskies lost badly to a mediocre Army squad in their last game. Marshall excels at defending the things that UConn does well. The Huskies average 194 rushing yards, while Marshall allows 88, fifth-best in the nation. Take Marshall to cover.

Myrtle Beach Bowl. Marshall is always one of the nation's best defensive teams and this year is no exception as the Herd rank fourth nationally in defensive efficiency and allow only 16.2 points per game. UConn is not going to be able to run the ball whatsoever, and the Huskies -- while a great success story this year -- average a dreadfully slow pace of 29.7 seconds per play. I'm not sure UConn scores more than 10. Can it hold Marshall to 30? Think so. Can't say I have an opinion on the spread, although I might if it keeps rising before kickoff.

If this were a regular season game, the total would make sense. Both offenses are ground-oriented. UConn is almost incapable of big gains. Marshall has allowed just one opponent to surpass 24 points. Yet, bowl participants tend to open things up. Look for Huskies coach Jim Mora to celebrate the unexpected post-season game with more passing and trickery. Besides, turnovers can create points, and the Thundering Herd's 25 takeaways suggests Marshall can register some scores with a short field.