The likely QB matchup says it all: SMU's Tanner Mordecai, who steers the No. 6 offense in FBS and is likely headed to the NFL next year, versus a third-stringer who has yet to play for BYU. (Starter Jaren Hall is injured; his backup is transferring). The Mustangs will miss NFL-bound WR Rashee Rice, who leads the nation in receiving yards per game, but wield enough playmakers to keep rolling against the 93rd-ranked defense. Also skipping the game for the Coogs is Keenan Pili, their No. 2 tackler, leaving them thin at linebacker. A few coaches have left, too, adding to BYU's burden.

New Mexico Bowl. At full strength, I would take BYU in this matchup. Both teams have been hit by opt outs, transfers, etc., but I have to take the Mustangs because BYU quarterback Jaren Hall is not expected to play due to injury. His backup already transferred out, so it will be Boise State freshman transfer Cade Fennegan. He hasn't seen regular-season action since 2020. The Cougars' top wideout, Puka Nacua, also may sit. That's enough for me to back SMU.