The TCU offense has certainly been impressive, especially in posting 62 points last week against Iowa State. What's equally notable, though, is the way the Horned Frogs defense consistently locks down teams in the second halves of games. Those halftime adjustments have led to TCU pulling off both dominant and come-from-behind victories, and they are the reason it will get past a tough-as-nails Kansas State team on Saturday. TCU is just too dangers offensively, and with this line coming down to basically a pick 'em, there's good value on the Frogs here given they are actually able to prepare for KSU's quarterback this time around.
Another rematch game in the conference championship, this time between the Horned Frogs and Wildcats. The first matchup was an epic comeback by TCU, which sort of began the 'Cardiac Frogs' mantra we went on to see the rest of the way. Both teams are much different now than they were then, but I like the fact that Kansas State is an identity. They thrive for games like this, moments like this and situations like this. This dates back all the way to Bill Snyder. With the way they can win with their run game, pass game, defense and special teams, I'm rolling with the Wildcats here to get revenge over TCU.
This small of a spread/moneyline sure seems disrespectful to TCU, which should have a huge advantage fan-wise with the Big 12 title game in nearby Arlington. A spot in the playoff awaits the Frogs with a win (you don't think Big 12 officials want that? Just saying). They beat Kansas State by 10 in Fort Worth on Oct. 22, although TCU did have to rally as it has often this year. TCU is the first Big 12 team to be 12-0 since Texas in 2009. The Horned Frogs are also the first Big 12 member to go 9-0 in conference play since Oklahoma in 2016. If this were at 3.5, I'd probably take the points but at this number ...
When oh when will the trend become our enemy instead of our friend? Not this week. The Horned Frogs are 8-2-1 against the spread this year, and they'll notch No. 9 this weekend against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Horned Frogs did something that great teams do last week with a dominating win over a lesser opponent (Iowa State) rather than playing "down" to its opponent. It'll be the same story this week. The Wildcats will make sure that Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan and the wide receiving corps don't beat them through the air, which will allow Kendre Miller to cook in the rushing game. If a field goal win cashes for TCU, I'm in.
Both of these offenses are rolling. Kansas State has averaged 47.7 points a game in the three games that quarterback Will Howard has started. Meanwhile TCU is coming off a 62-point effort against the best defense in the Big 12, Iowa State. Earlier this season these teams combined for 66 points, and that was before the Wildcats offense really got going. I love the Over.