This has been wobbling between Horns -7 and -7.5 the past 24 hours. I'm going to jump while it's temporarily back at 7.5. I do think Texas probably wins at home as TCU has had to rally several times in the fourth quarter this year but I don't think the unbeaten Frogs should be getting more than a touchdown.

This is the biggest game the Horned Frogs have had in recent memory. As the four seed in the latest CFP poll, they are in line to make the Playoff if they can avoid a loss. The Horned Frogs feel like a team of destiny. Under first year head coach Sonny Dykes, the Horned Frogs have been perfect. The Horned Frogs have taken down the Longhorns in six of their last eight meetings, including four of their last five meetings in Austin. The Longhorns struggle to slow down quarterbacks and this game should be no different. Expect quarterback Max Duggan to have a big game and to carry the Horned Frogs to a win.

The safest bets may be to take the Longhorns to cover the first half spread and then to take the Horned Frogs to cover the second half spread. Against Power 5 opponents, Texas has outscored its foes by 94 points in the first half (second in the country to Georgia) but has been outscored in the second half by 28 points. No Longhorns lead is safe. And even if Texas jumps out to an early lead, TCU has the offensive firepower -- behind quarterback Max Duggan and NFL-caliber receivers -- to keep the game within reach. Frogs cover.

Since TCU joined the Big 12, the Horned Frogs are 4-1 in Austin. TCU is the No. 4 ranked team in the country but is +7.5 here. In our neutral-site rankings, we have TCU ranked 10th and Texas ranked 14th, which puts the spread at -2 or -3 rather than +7.5. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers is still a freshman, while TCU’s Max Duggan has three years of starting experience. I like TCU to cover.